A litmus test for Cong in AP by-polls

The contest will also show whether Jagan is a worthy successor to YSR

Andhra Pradesh is all set to witness yet another round of by-elections later this year following the disqualification of 16 legislators of the ruling Congress under the  “anti-defection law” for defying the party whip and voting against the government during the Opposition-sponsored no-confidence motion in December last.

The by-polls, likely to be held in June this year, will be an acid test for the Kiran Kumar Reddy government which is beset with a plethora of problems including dissidence, continued political uncertainty over Telangana and a formidable threat from the new political force represented by the YSR Congress.

All the disqualified MLAs are sailing with the YSR Congress party headed by YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, an ambitious and restive   industrialist-turned-politician who is banking on the legacy of his charismatic father and former chief minister, the late YS Rajasekhar Reddy.

The by-elections will provide a platform for Jagan to test his popularity and establish himself as a sole political successor to his illustrious father, who had steered the Congress to power for two successive terms, While disqualifying 16 MLAs at one go, an unprecedented move in the state legislature history, Speaker Nadendla Manohar also accepted the resignation of another pro-Jagan MLA B Shobha Nagi Reddy of Praja Rajyam Party which has since been merged with the ruling Congress.

 Of them, six are in the volatile Telangana region. By delaying the decision on the disqualification of rebel legislators, the Congress has ensured that the constituencies, being represented by pro-Jagan MLAs, were not clubbed with the present round of by-polls.

Otherwise, it would have been an uphill task for the ruling party to face elections in 24 seats at a time.

It is widely believed in political circles that Jagan loyalists would be able to retain a majority of their seats. Barring one in Telangana, all the constituencies are in Rayalassema and coastal Andhra regions where Jagan is expected to do well. The Congress leaders fear that such a scenario could trigger desertions in the ruling camp, threatening the stability of the government which had barely managed to survive the no-trust motion three months ago. Following the disqualification, the strength of Congress has come down to 137, from 154, in the 294-member Assembly.

As of now, there is no threat to the government as it got a booster dose from the 17-member PRP headed by the actor-turned-politician Chiranjeevi following its merger with the ruling party. Besides, it also has the support of seven-member Majlis Ittehadul Muslimeen.