Monsoon will retreat from next week

South west monsoon may start retreating from the second half of next week, after a late resurgence that nearly made it up for its initial failings.

“Conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of southwest monsoon from many parts of northwest and west India during second half of the week beginning on September 24,” the Indian Meteorological Department has predicted.Parts of east, north-east and Andaman and Nicobar Islands will receive heavy rain, but the rest of the country would remain dry, marking the withdrawal of the south west monsoon that went into overdrive on the second half of the June-September session.

The overall deficiency for the country has now come to only five per cent whereas shortfall for the northwest – parched in the first two months – is only four per cent. Last week (September 13-19) was particularly bountiful for the northwest that received close to 199 per cent excess rainfall triggering floods in parts of Rajasthan.

“After the southwest monsoon starts withdrawing from the northwest, it may take about three weeks for complete retreat. However, the north east monsoon is likely to set in by around October 20,” S C Bhan, deputy director of IMD told Deccan Herald.

Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, rainfall has been excess and normal in 25 and deficient in 11 subdivisions. In area-wise distribution, 73 per cent of the country received excess and normal rainfall, while the remaining 27 per cent area received deficient rainfall.

Till the beginning of August, the future looked bleak for parched interiors of Karnataka as well as the grain baskets of Punjab and Haryana, which are clearly staring at “meteorological drought.” West Rajasthan and Saurashtra and Kutch were the two other “highly deficient” meteorological subdivisions.

The seasonal deficiency was estimated to be around 15 per cent by September end. But the nature proved the weathermen wrong with a heavy downpour in the last one month which dramatically reduce the shortage and removed worries about an adverse "El nino" effect.

West Rajasthan is now an “excess rainfall” state and deficiency came down in other sub-divisions.