Drought and deluge

Call it erratic rainfall or the changing weather pattern, monsoon seems to be drifting. What was being seen as a freak phenomenon in some parts of the country in the past has now become more pronounced.

The near absence of rains in the beginning of the monsoon season, with a recovery witnessed in the months of July and early August, followed by a heavy downpour in the second half of August and September should provide enough reasons for a change in thinking and approach. So far we have witnessed floods in one region while a sizeable portion of the country goes dry, and at the same time there are some indications of monsoon beginning a week late in east India, but the new phenomenon of monsoon drift should be the focus of renewed disaster preparedness.

Farmers are more ingenious than planners. While the planners and policy makers will wait for screaming editorials before they take any notice, farmers have already moved to adaptive technologies. Take Punjab, for instance. Hit by a severe dry spell, Punjab farmers have shifted to late-sown and less water consuming basmati rice varieties. This year, one-fourth of the area under paddy has been brought under basmati rice. In several parts of the country, farmers were quick to shift to alternative crops knowing well that rains are going to be deficient.

Monsoon rains, which began late leaving Gujarat, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh as the worst hit by poor rainfall, now appear to be in no hurry to leave. Getting it all wrong this year, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is now finding it embarrassing to explain why southwest monsoon is not withdrawing as predicted. IMD had pointed to a dry September hoping the phenomenon of El Nino – which mostly brings in dry conditions in India – to become active in the tail-end of the rainy season.

 What began as a dry season, with 42 per cent rainfall deficiency recorded in June, the country as a whole has received normal and above normal rainfall for most days of the first half of September. Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, excess or normal rainfall has been recorded in 23 and deficient in the remaining 13 subdivisions. While averages fudge the ground realities, the damage had already been done. 

Interestingly, most of the areas that were reportedly faced with a severe dry spell, and that comprised nearly 300 districts, have been slashed by continuous rains over the past two weeks. In some parts of the country, heavy and incessant rains have on the other hand created flood-like conditions, disrupting life and even forcing the state governments to launch evacuation measures. The erratic rainfall pattern has thrown up serious lessons, which we tend to forget after the monsoon season is over.

Officially declared

Four states had officially declared drought – Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat and Rajasthan. In Gujarat, for instance, several parts of north, south and central state were hit by a drought. In addition to Kutch-Saurashtra and north Gujarat regions, neighbouring Union Territory of Diu, Daman and Dadra Nagar Haveli too was reeling under drought like conditions. In the second half of August and the first fortnight of September, most parts of the drought-affected regions were lashed with heavy rains as a result of which excess water from several reservoirs had to be released inundating in the process several villages and towns.

What is equally more intriguing is that while Kutch received the lowest rainfall in June-July, Surat district registered the highest rainfall in a decade. Such extreme variations exist in almost each of the states.

In Madhya Pradesh, heavy rains not only disrupted life in several major cities but also ended drought in east and western parts. Rainfall now remains deficit in only four districts – Barwani, Umaria, Balaghat and Dindori. In Uttarakhand, which too reeled under drought in June, heavy rains have left 50 people dead, sparked landslides and flash floods, and brought in army to evacuate 20,000 people to 60 relief camps. 

In Karnataka, I am not sure whether the Rs 17-crore puja programme evoked sympathy from the rain gods, but according to the Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre moderate rainfall has been received in Chikmagalur, Davangere and Haveri districts, and light to heavy rains in Chikkaballapur, Gulbarga, Hassan, Chitradurga, Gadag, Belgaum, Kolar, Mandya, Bellary, Tumkur, Koppal, Ramanagar and Dharwad districts, while dry conditions prevailed in rest of the state.

In Rajasthan, many days of heavy downpour has turned several parts of the state as flood-affected. Against a shortfall of 29.69 per cent till Aug 10, Rajasthan has now received 4.89 per cent above normal rainfall. It had to rope in the army in rescue and relief operations after 33 lives were lost.

While it remains a fact that the country is hardly prepared to mitigate the impact of drought on the farming communities and landless labour, and has also failed to draw out a drought-proofing plan despite being faced with recurring dry spells, what worries me is the refusal to learn any immediate lessons from the visible monsoon drift – a dry beginning and heavy rainfall thereafter in August and September.