Monsoon deserts south, brings bounty to north, east

Monsoon worries are increasing in vast tracts of central and peninsular India where deficiencies are slowly increasing, though the north and east continues to receive a bounty.

The shortfall crossed 60 per cent in these two homogeneous regions on Friday. But taking the total rainfall into account since June 1, monsoon deficiency is 16 per cent in central India and 14 per cent in the peninsular region.  And to make the matter worse, the storage in reservoirs in the central and southern India is significantly less than the national average.  

For the country as a whole, the shortfall for the entire monsoon season stands at seven per cent and the Met department feels this could go up further in the coming week.

Though the met office had forecast below normal monsoon because of the El Nino threat, an extremely wet June pushed back the apprehensions. But with the return of the El Nino – an unusual warming of the Pacific that plays havoc with weather around the world – the fingers are crossed.

The forecast for the next four days suggest showers for the north, northwest and east, but very little for central and south, barring Lakshadweep, Kerala and south Karnataka.

While the summer crop (kharif) sowing is almost 40 per cent more than the corresponding period last year, rain is crucial for the standing crops like pulses, oil seeds and cotton.  
Though officials in the Agriculture Ministry refuse to press the panic button, they are asking the farmers to be judicious with water.

"It’s not a scary situation but yes, the sown crop definitely needs water now,” says an official in the Agriculture Ministry.

Four days ago, Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR) released its delayed sowings and mid-season droughts for Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. ICAR suggested contingency measures for each state.

In April, the IMD warned of below normal (93 per cent) rainfall. But the second stage forecast on June 2, the met office predicted “deficient” (88 per cent) rain. As the June forecast came with an error margin of four per cent, it suggests that actual rainfall could vary between 84 to 92 per cent.

Meanwhile, the Regional Meteorological Centre in Chennai said though few districts received normal rainfall, Tamil Nadu has registered 11 per cent deficit rain, while in Karnataka it was minus 17 per cent. The data recorded from June 1 to July 15, further said that Kerala, which normally receives excess rainfall during the season, recorded deficit rainfall of minus 25 per cent. 

In case of Andhra Pradesh, the deficiency is much more higher than its neighbouring states. It received a deficit rainfall of about 50 per cent.

A senior official from the Met department on Friday said the southwest monsoon sets in over the extreme southwestern tip of the peninsula by the end of May. The onset of monsoon is characterised by a sudden spurt of rainfall activity.  It progresses inland in stages and covers the entire country by the middle of July.

The Met department findings further said that in TN, 22 out of the 32 districts received poor rainfall with capital Chennai leading the table by getting deficit rainfall of minus 55 per cent.

Though, TN is considered a rain shadow region during the southwest monsoon as it lies on the eastern (leeward side) side of the Western Ghats, Theni and Coimbatore received unprecedented excess rainfall of 230 and 102 per cent respectively.