Chinese checkers

By conducting a second nuclear test last  Monday N Korea has not only challenged international opinion but defied all efforts made till now to curb its weapons programme. Countries, including the US and China, and the UN were involved in the attempts, in different ways and at different levels, to persuade Pyongyang to renounce and roll back its nuclear programme. The efforts have seemed to make progress off and on but would be set back by an action or statement from the country. The latest nuclear test was preceded last month by the launch of  a long-range rocket and followed by missile launch experiments the next day. If there was some doubt left about the country’s claims after the first nuclear test in 2006, there are no ne now. It is a confirmed nuclear power with even long-range missile capability.

Condemnations will not hold the country back. Sanctions imposed by the UN after the first nuclear test have not helped. An initiative of President Clinton might have succeeded in nipping the nuclear programme in the bud, but President Bush, taking an openly confrontationist position, scuttled it. The six-party talks involving North Korea, the US, China, Russia, Japan and N Korea still remain the best possible means to find a solution. During the talks Pyongyang had agreed to dismantle its nuclear facilities in return for energy and security guarantees but it reneged on its word later. It is using the nuclear programme as a bargaining counter. But it is willing to talk renunciation, and diplomacy remains the only means to deal with a nuclear power. China holds the aces in the situation because it has the best leverage with Pyongyang. But, the real Chinese attitude to N Korea’s nuclear programme is not known, though Beijing has been active in the negotiations. Is China using North Korea as a bargaining counter or a tool to pressurise the US?

The Pyongyang programme poses a threat to security and stability in East and North-East Asia. It will also have an adverse impact on non-proliferation efforts all over the world. A nuclear N Korea might push Japan, which already feels threatened by the rising Chinese profile, to take the nuclear road, in spite of US guarantees of security. Poverty, isolation, an unaccountable government and opaqueness mark out N Korea. A combination of these with nuclear power is dangerous, and the world needs to find a way out of the situation.