Less friends, more enemies

On July 17, US President Donald Trump re-certified for the second time in the last six months, Iran’s compliance with the nuclear deal, despite his intense hatred for the Iranian regime and the deal that he had promised “to kill” as soon as he came to power. This was after a 55-minute meeting with his top foreign and security policy advisers who couldn’t find any fault with Iran on its compliance.

Trump came into the meeting clearly declaring his intent not to re-certify but had to swallow his pride and act on the advice of his team. He left the meeting telling his advisers that this was the last time he would certify and they better find some violations by Iran. The certification is required to be done by the president every 3 months before the Congress can take up a total review of the deal and re-impose fresh sanctions on Tehran.

The essential point is that Trump was doing no favour to Iran. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the only body that is authorised to monitor, verify and detect violations, if any by Iran’s nuclear agencies, had already given a clean chit to Tehran last month and there was nothing the US State Department, the Pentagon or the Department of Energy could do to pander to the president’s whims and fancies.

It is instructive to know what Yukiya Amano, the director general of the IAEA, informed the Board of Governors in his report dated June 2, 2017, on “Verification and Monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of UNSC resolution 2231 (2015).” The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) had passed this resolution subsequent to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the P5+1 (US, UK, France, China and Russia + Germany) on July 14, 2015.

Some highlights of the report are:

• Iran has not pursued the construction of the Arak Heavy Water Research Reactor (IR-40 Reactor) based on its original design.

• Iran has not carried out activities related to reprocessing at the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR).

• At the Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) at Natanz, there have been no more than 5060 IR-1 centrifuges installed in 30 cascades, which remain in the configurations of the operating units at the time the JCPOA was agreed.

• Iran has not enriched uranium above 3.67% U-235.

• At the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), throughout the reporting period, Iran has not conducted any uranium enrichment or related R&D activities, and there has not been any nuclear material at the plant.

• All centrifuges and associated infrastructure in storage have remained under continuous agency monitoring. The agency has also continued to have regular access to FFEP, including daily access upon request.

• No enriched uranium has been accumulated through enrichment R&D activities.

• Iran’s enrichment R&D, with and without uranium, has been conducted using centrifuges within the limits defined in the JCPOA.

With such an exhaustive and emphatic certification of Iran’s compliance of its nuclear activities by the UN mandated body, there was little that Trump’s advisers could do to convince him otherwise.

The problem is that if the US unilaterally breaks away from the JCPOA, its European partners, let alone China and Russia, are unlikely to stand by it. So it is now argued in Washington that they have to find ways to push Iran to break the deal with the P5+1, for that’s the only way the European partners would support the US in punishing Iran. But Iran seems to be in no hurry to do so.

Tearing hurry

Then what was the hurry for India to antagonise Tehran? Why was India so eager to please Trump, when his own advisers failed to do so? On March 26, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval went to the US and met his new counterpart H R McMaster and Homeland Security Chief John Kelly. Doval also had a meeting with new Defence Secretary John Mattis.

Soon after Doval’s return to Delhi, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) asked the departments concerned to go slow on the projects planned for the Chabahar Free Trade Zone where Minister for Roads, Highways and Shipping Nitin Gadkari had announced an investment of Rs 1 lakh crore.

The MEA then asked the Fertiliser Department (March 29) to instruct the state-run Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilisers plant in Mangaluru to go slow in selecting an Iranian partner for the proposed urea plant.

A similar message was sent to the proposed $3 billion investment in the aluminium smelter plant that was to be set up by the National Aluminium Company (NALCO) in Iran.

Were these decisions taken on the advice of the Trump administration? Anyway, the rationale was that Indian investments would get caught in the crossfire of fresh US sanctions on Iran. But now it is clear that even Trump is finding it too difficult to break away from the JCPOA inked by his predecessor and impose any more sanctions.

What we got from the White House for this excessive show of loyalty was a one-day invitation for our prime minister who went essentially to sign away defence deals worth over $110 billion to the US. But what we got from Iran were unexpectedly harsh comments from the Ayatollah on our Kashmir policy.

While many of our nationalist commentators wondered at this outburst, few have seen the background for the Ayotallah’s reaction. So if we wish to make more foes in a region where we hardly have any friends, calibrating our foreign policy to Trump’s mood swings would be an assured way to go about.

(The writer is a Visiting Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation)