Monsoon plays truant again

Monsoons are well known for their vagaries. While there is excess in some areas, there is a deficit in others, all within a season. The reason is that meteorological conditions vary over large areas and the monsoon does not recognise geographical boundaries. This year the monsoon has been above average till now, with plenty of rain in the north, east and west of the country. But the southern states have received much less rain than the rest of the country and is below the actual rainfall received in the past. Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala have experienced a severe deficit in the first half of the season. Karnataka has recorded a 16% deficit, down from the annual 412 mm rainfall to 344 mm this year, till last week. Tamil Nadu and Kerala are experiencing bigger deficits.

These states are staring at the possibility of a drought as there is a shortfall for the second consecutive year. Agricultural production at the national level may not be affected much because the fall in production in the southern states may be made up by the increase in output in other states. But the impact will be felt because a national market for agricultural produce is in its infancy, logistical problems relating to transport are severe and storage facilities are poor. This is already being seen in the soaring prices of tomatoes and onions all over the country. The situation will be especially bad in the southern states. Crop failure will badly hit farmers. The state governments will have to take urgent steps to mitigate the consequences of a bad monsoon. Farmers and consumers have to be protected against the impact of poor farm production which will affect them in different ways.

Karnataka has much to worry about the situation unfolding in the state. The water level in all the major reservoirs in the Cauvery basin, except Harangi, is much lower than that recorded in the corresponding period of 2016. Bengaluru has also received less rain than in previous years. The availability of water for both agricultural and drinking purposes may be affected. Though the rainy season has not ended, it is unlikely that the deficit will be made up in the coming weeks. Farmers in the Mysore region are already protesting. Issues related to water sharing with Tamil Nadu will hot up in the coming weeks. The drought situation and water-related issues are bound to become more sensitive in Karnataka as the election approaches.