Bihar Assembly Elections: Seat sharing, youth anger & caste math — Why 2025 is a cliffhanger contest

The Bihar 2025 polls pit the NDA led by Nitish Kumar against the Mahagathbandhan/I.N.D.I.A. bloc under Tejashwi Yadav. Meanwhile, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party has jumped into the fray, aiming to disrupt the two-horse race by contesting all 243 seats

Bihar is bracing for a hotly-contested Assembly election in years. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) leans on power and stability, the Mahagathbandhan rides anti-incumbency and caste firepower, while Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj threatens to rip open the two-horse race. Add Aam Aaadmi Party (AAP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) to the mix, and 2025 could deliver a cliffhanger verdict.

NDA has the network, but does it have the narrative?

The BJP-JD(U)-LJP combine still packs the most formidable machine in Bihar politics. Central schemes, Nitish Kumar’s rural connect, and the BJP’s cadre discipline give the NDA its muscle.

But here’s the catch — anti-incumbency is real. Nitish Kumar, who is already the longest serving Chief Minister in the history of the State and, having been in the 'hot seat' for nine times, looks jaded. There might be a fatigue element among voters regarding his leadership.

Alliance partners too are bickering over seats. As per the latest reports, an understanding has been reached between BJP and JD(U) and the saffron party has respected Nitish's demand of "at least one seat more than BJP". If reports are to be believed, in the election for the 243 constituencies, JD(U) will contest for 102 seats and BJP for 101.

The remaining 40 will be given to Chirag Paswan's LJP and Jitan Ram Manjhi's  Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM). But on numerous occasions, Chirag has made it clear that his party "will not compromise", and sources in the BJP say that his demand is for 40 seats. The alliance looks strong but a lot of work still needs to be done in terms of seat sharing and agenda finalisation.

Over 58 per cent of the State’s population is aged under 25, with a median age being just 22. The State government has not been able to stop migration by providing them employment and this situation can very easily turn into a ticking time bomb. The NDA can bank on upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs, and urban voters, but if youth anger boils over, its core base could wobble.

Mahagathbandhan: If Tejashwi unites the flock, the NDA is in real trouble

The RJD-led I.N.D.I.A. bloc smells blood. For the Opposition, the election is a test of whether it can convert anti-incumbency into votes for them. Strong social base anchored in Yadavs and Muslims, supplemented by alliances with Congress and the Left, the opposition is fired up to turn anger into votes.

Tejashwi Yadav, who has been positioning himself as a youth leader with a promise of jobs and welfare, remains the face of the campaign.

The seat-sharing troubles might not be as big as that in the NDA but some issues are there. After many back and forth, all allies were seen together on one stage during Rahul Gandhi's 'Vote Adhikar Yatra' in Patna. Rahul Gandhi during the rally said, 'A very strong partnership had been forged. All the parties are working in sync. There's no tension, and there's mutual respect for each other.'

Still, it’s not a cakewalk. As per reports, Congress has already given a list of 76 candidates and Mukesh Sahni's Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) has marked 62 seats. If we take a look at 2020 Assembly elections, RJD contested 144 seats and won 75 and Congress could win only 19 out 70 seats the party had contested. The Left parties surprised everyone with the CPI-ML winning 12 out of 19 it contested, CPI(M) won 2 out of 4 and CPI 2 out of 6. Congress' weak organisational strength is an issue this time as well.

Considering this, it will be slightly more difficult for RJD and other parties to keep everyone happy. Open dissent added with internal sabotage is the last thing any party would want to face in a critical election like this. There are some ghosts from the Lalu-Rabri era, like past governance records and poor law and order, which raise credibility issues.

Still, the bloc’s big opportunity lies in mobilising migrant families and unemployed youth, an issue that resonates deeply in Bihar. Its main threat is fragmentation if allies squabble or if new players like Jan Suraaj cut into the anti-incumbency vote, the bloc could fall short despite favourable sentiment.

The PK Factor: Kingmaker or Spoiler?

Enter Prashant Kishor, the strategist who has shaped elections across India but now wants to win one himself. His Jan Suraaj Party is contesting all 243 seats, selling itself as the 'clean, governance-first' alternative. His padyatras have built buzz, especially among youth tired of caste-first politics.

But in reality there is no booth network, no caste anchors in a state like Bihar which is highly polarised on the basis of caste and no tested candidates. PK might not sweep seats, but he could split opposition votes or hold the balance of power in a hung house.

AAP & The Rest: Noise, Not Numbers

They won’t rule Bihar, but they could ruin the math

AAP is eyeing all 243 seats too, hoping to repeat its Delhi-Punjab magic, but without a ground force it risks being dismissed as a sideshow. These smaller outfits might not win big, but in razor-thin margins, they could play spoiler.

The Big Picture: A Three-Way Thriller

The 2025 Bihar election won’t be business as usual. NDA’s muscle vs Mahagathbandhan’s momentum vs PK’s wildcard sets up a three-way thriller. The final script may depend less on rallies and more on booth arithmetic, youth turnout, and whether Kishor can slice into the traditional vote banks.

Bihar isn’t just voting for a government rather it’s voting for the future of its politics.