Facing 2024 polls, handling BJP’s onslaught; AIADMK has its work cut out out after quitting NDA

The mood was jubilant at MGR Maaligai, AIADMK headquarters in the heart of this metropolis, on Monday with cadres bursting crackers, distributing sweets, and hugging each other following the party’s severing of ties with the BJP. No doubt, the Edappadi K Palaniswami-led AIADMK’s decision to walk out of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is brave and one that was long expected among second-rung leaders and cadres. 

But the decision comes with a slew of risks and challenges for Palaniswami, who has proved to be a crafty politician after he was thrust into the Chief Minister’s chair by his former boss V K Sasikala in 2017, especially with the Lok Sabha elections just seven months away. 

Palaniswami and his senior colleagues knew from the beginning that the party’s alliance with the BJP was liked neither by the people nor by the cadre, who owe allegiance to the magical Two Leaves symbol, but couldn’t take any “strong decision” vis-à-vis the BJP, which went out of the way to ensure that the AIADMK government completed its tenure. 

But state BJP chief K Annamalai’s consistent attack on its icons – C N Annadurai and J Jayalalithaa – gave much needed excuse for the AIADMK to walkout of the NDA. While the cadre’s morale will obviously be high with the decision, the first challenge is to get the party battle-ready for the 2024 elections and retain smaller parties in the alliance led by it. 

Many of these parties, including PMK which has a committed 5.5 per cent votes and an influential party in north Tamil Nadu, might yield to pressure from the BJP, which will have no choice but to lead a Third Front for the Lok Sabha polls. In such a scenario, the responsibility of ensuring that the anti-DMK votes don’t get split will also fall on Palaniswami.

But the decision allows Palaniswami to woo back the minorities, who stayed away from the AIADMK for the past six years and reach out to some of the parties that are part of the DMK alliance. However, the chances of any DMK ally joining hands with AIADMK seems remote, albeit for now.

Add to this, the threat of BJP unleashing investigative agencies like the CBI, ED, and Income Tax department on AIADMK leaders, many of whom are already facing cases of corruption, and fast-tracking cases like the Gutkha scam in which former Health Minister C Vijayabaskar has been charge sheeted. 

The major challenge for Palaniswami, if he remains firm on Monday’s decision, will be to convince the electorate to vote for the AIADMK in the absence of a Prime Ministerial candidate. It can’t project Narendra Modi anymore as he will be the face of the BJP front and the AIADMK knows that the charismatic J Jayalalithaa is not alive to convert the contest into a ‘Lady versus Modi’ fight like in 2014 elections. 

Through this move, Palaniswami will also seek to send a signal that the AIADMK will get back to its Dravidian roots – the party has been under attack for remaining silent on several key issues like reservation for Economically Weaker Sections due to its alliance with the BJP – and reclaim its lost glory. 

Prof Ramu Manivannan, Visiting Professor, Josef Korbel School of International Studies University of Denver, US, told DH that the AIADMK will now regain the status of the “real alternative” to the ruling DMK and keep up its presence as the prime Opposition party. 

“The AIADMK was walking on a suicidal path for a very long time, and it has now come out of the noose. What follows next is a pure clinical process for the party, which has handed out a big relief for itself by bidding adieu to the BJP. The recovery process will of course be patchy,” Prof Manivannan added.