On the other side of this border in northern Ukraine, not visible through the thick pine and birch forests that crowd the E-95 highway but noticeable to passing truckers, a force is gathering in Belarus more potent than anything seen in the country since the fall of the Soviet Union, officials and military analysts say.
Russia has deployed tanks and artillery, fighter jets and helicopters, advanced rocket systems and troops by the thousands all across Belarus, augmenting a fighting force that will soon envelop Ukraine like a horseshoe on three sides. Russia says the troops have deployed for military exercises scheduled to commence next month, but the buildup in Belarus could presage an attack from a new vector, one in proximity to Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv.
With much of Ukraine’s military might concentrated in the country’s east — where a war with Russian-backed separatists has raged for eight years — military analysts and Ukraine’s own generals say it will be difficult for the country to muster the forces necessary to defend its northern border.
“As a result of Russia taking control over Belarus, 1,070 kilometers of our border with Belarus became a threat,” said Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s defence minister, referring to a distance of about 665 miles. “This is not a threat from Belarus — Ukraine has a very warm attitude toward the Belarusian people — but a threat from Russia moving through Belarus.”
The Novi Yarylovychi border crossing is a fast, 140-mile drive straight from the Belarus border south to Kyiv on a highway that is mostly freshly paved thanks to efforts by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to address the poor state of Ukrainian roads. It would be an easy ride for any Russian tank driver so long as Russian forces take out Ukrainian air power and artillery first and the Javelin anti-tank missiles provided to the Ukrainian military by the United States stay deployed in eastern Ukraine.
On the Ukrainian side of the border, preparations to repel a potential military incursion are largely nonexistent. Last fall, Ukraine deployed 8,500 troops to its northern border, a mix of border police, national guard forces and military that were mostly directed at preventing Belarus from sending Middle Eastern migrants over the border the way it had in Poland and Lithuania.
Although that force remains in the border region, its members have left the vicinity of Novi Yarylovychi. There is now just a handful of border guards, armed with automatic rifles, stationed at the post — little deterrence should a Russian tank unit make a sudden thrust toward the capital. A truck driver ferrying candle wax who had just crossed into Ukraine and would give only his first name, Yevgeni, said he had seen columns of military vehicles including armoured personnel carriers with license plates indicating they had come from the Ryazan region southeast of Moscow.
“There are kilometer-long columns there, escorted by police,” he said.
Indeed, new troops, armour and equipment have been pouring into Belarus daily. News reports from within Belarus have shown local officials flanked by Belarusian women in traditional dress, greeting Russian military commanders with loaves of bread and salt, a traditional welcome.
Russia is deploying some of its most advanced and well-equipped forces to nine different bases and airfields around Belarus, the Russian Defense Ministry says. Already, highly trained special forces units and airborne troops, together with powerful S-400 anti-aircraft systems and hundreds of aircraft, have begun to arrive at bases around the country, Ukrainian and Western officials say.
The goal of the exercises, named “Allied Resolve,” is to “develop different options for jointly neutralising threats and stabilizing the situation on the borders,” Russia’s deputy defence minister, Alexander Fomin, said in a meeting with foreign military attachés in Moscow this month.
Dressed in green camouflage, Alexei Shevchuk, the all-business first deputy commander of the border post, said that he and his comrades would be ready to put up a fight should Russian forces appear on the border. But he acknowledged that there would be little they could do against Russian tanks.
“Visually, we don’t see anything — not equipment, not people and not Belarusian armed forces near the post,” he said. “In the case of invasion or other nonstandard situation on the state border, we shall act, but for the moment everything is going according to plan.”
Historically, Belarus has given Ukraine little trouble. Although its authoritarian leader, Alexander Lukashenko, is perhaps closer to Moscow than any other post-Soviet head of state, he had in the past largely avoided picking sides in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. That changed after the presidential elections in August 2020, when the Russian intelligence services were forced to come to his rescue amid an outbreak of sprawling protests against his rule.
Since then, he has recognised Russia’s annexation of Crimea and vowed to support Moscow in any military action involving Ukraine. Like his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, he has, without providing evidence, accused Ukraine of escalating tensions and threatening war.
“Ten years ago, we could not have imagined that a moment like today would arrive when we would have to establish military units and a whole union in defence of our southern border,” Lukashenko said on a visit to Belarusian military bases last week. And in an address to the nation Friday, Lukashenko accused the West of seeking to “drown the Russian-Ukrainian brotherhood in blood.”
Reznikov, the Ukrainian defence minister, assessed that Russia could use the territory of Belarus to threaten not only Ukraine but “all of Europe,” though he expressed hope that diplomacy and de-escalation would prevail.
Some European leaders are less optimistic. While military analysts say there is little chance at the moment that Lukashenko, let alone Putin, would risk open warfare with a NATO country, leaders in Eastern Europe, particularly in Poland and the Baltic countries, are growing increasingly nervous.
“We are reaching the point where continuous Russian and Belarusian military buildup in Europe needs to be addressed by appropriate NATO countermeasures,” Edgars Rinkevics, Latvia’s foreign minister, tweeted this week. On Tuesday the Pentagon put 8,500 troops on “heightened alert” as President Joe Biden weighed sending more assets to reinforce NATO units in Eastern Europe.
Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s secretary-general, accused Russia this week of pursuing a military buildup in Belarus “under the disguise of an exercise.”
“These are highly capable, combat-ready troops, and there is no transparency on these deployments,” he said. “It adds to the tensions, and it shows that there is no de-escalation. On the contrary, it’s actually more troops, more capabilities in more countries.”
Some in Ukraine have criticised the government for not doing enough to shore up the country’s defences — on the Belarus border or elsewhere.
“The biggest danger is that Ukrainian forces are mainly concentrated in the east of Ukraine, but the closest route to Kyiv is from Belarus,” said Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who was prime minister of Ukraine when war broke out in 2014. “It’s just as urgent to send additional military units to protect Kyiv as the capital, to make military roadblocks. That’s what we did in 2014.”
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