Centre to withdraw farm laws but shadow of protest will linger long

While the first answer will come with the outcome of the assembly elections in less than six months, the party may have to toil much more to repair the dent

With Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday making a sudden announcement about his government’s decision to repeal the contentious farm laws, which he had earlier hailed as 'protection shield' for farmers, BJP on Friday stooped to conquer not only the state polls that are months away but also the perception that was turning against it, something for which the caution from the backyard itself.

While Meghalaya Governor Satypal Malik has been repeatedly saying the ongoing farmer protest will damage BJP’s electoral prospects, RSS had also cautioned the BJP about the continuance of protest and batted for Government-farmers talks even in June this year six months after the last talks between farmers and the government in January.

But will it really make a difference in the "anti-farmer" narrative built around the government after the year-long farm protest and subsequent Opposition campaign is something that will keep bothering the ruling party in months to come? Western UP where SP and RLD have allied against BJP, which benefited from communal polarisation earlier will be a test case while BJP has never been a major player in Punjab and elections in another epicentre of protest Haryana are far away.

Read | PM should apologise to farmers for pain caused due to farm laws, says Congress

Political analyst Rasheed Kidwai says, “It will not translate into votes for the BJP in Punjab polls. Congress and AAP will continue to be in the first and second spot. In Uttar Pradesh, particularly Western Uttar Pradesh, it will, however, reduce the attraction of Jat voters towards RLD-SP combine.”

While the first answer will come with the outcome of elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Punjab in less than six months, the party may have to toil much more to repair the dent.

The conciliatory note of the government towards the farming community was evident like it had done after withdrawing the contentious land bill of 2015 when it had renamed Agriculture Ministry as Ministry for Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare.

While Modi said the government brought in the new laws with a good intention, full sincerity and complete dedication for the welfare of farmers, especially for small farmers, Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar was “sad” that the government could not convince farmers about the “revolutionary change" it wanted to bring about.

Some new announcements to reach out to farmers, particularly small and marginal farmers, which the prime minister said are “80% of farmers” could be in the offing.

BJP had lost badly in Bihar polls even after withdrawing the contentious land bill in 2015 while it did not perform as expected in West Bengal polls in 2021 which took place amid the on-going farm protests during which the farmer unions also held events in the state, slamming the BJP-led government at Centre for the farm laws.

Soon after the enactment of the law, BJP’s oldest ally Shiromani Akali Dal quit the Modi government and walked out of NDA. BJP’s ally in Rajasthan RLP had earlier walked out of NDA over farm bill issues last year while Dushyant Chautala-led Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), another ally in party-ruled Haryana flagged its discomfiture with on-going farm protests umpteen times, more so after an officer in Haryana was heard on a viral video directing cops to “break the heads” of protesting farmers hours before a lathi-charge in which many farmers were seriously injured in August.

Read | Congress to observe November 20 as 'Kisan Vijay Diwas'

The worst came in Lakhimpur Kheri in UP in October when eight persons including four farmers were killed and the son of a Union minister was accused of running a car over farmers.

While Rahul Gandhi latching on to the on-going farmer protests tried to build a 'farmer OBC Dalit' axis in favour of the Congress, there was a sort of another “Award Wapasi” moment with SAD leader Parkash Singh Badal and Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa having returned their Padma awards, former national boxing coach Gurbaksh Singh, his Dronacharya Award, and also the winners of Bhartiya Sahitya Akademi Award in Punjabi Sirmour Shire Dr Mohanji, eminent thinker Dr Jaswinder Singh and Punjabi playwright and and editor of Punjabi Tribune Swarajbir.

After the prime minister’s Friday announcement, Shiv Sena, the past ally of NDA which now heads an alliance government with Congress and NCP in Maharashtra advised the Central government to “henceforth take other parties into confidence to avoid such afterthoughts and embarrassment in future”.

With the decision to repeal the bills taken, BJP has fulfilled a major demand of a pre-poll ally in making Captain Amarinder Singh and has also opened post-poll alliance possibilities of SAD if required.

Kidwai says, “For Opposition, it is a feeling of opportunity and belligerence that Modi can roll back, retreat or be pressurised into doing this.

Not hiding its glee at the government “capitulating”, Congress fished out video clips in which Rahul Gandhi had said the government will have to ultimately withdraw the farm bills as the Prime Minister announced the decision “apologising to the countrymen” and regretting some possible “deficiency” in his government’s efforts to explain the “truth like the light of the lamp” to the farmer brothers.

Clearly, Congress is not going to leave the opportunity to keep pointing out to the ruling party “we told you this”.

Politics over farm bills withdrawal will heat up in the coming days, particularly during the Winter session beginning November 29.

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