Mokama and Gopalganj bypoll results could signal JD(U)-RJD merger

Supporting allies in the Mahagathbandhan have extended their unconditional support to the RJD nominee

Usually, bypolls evince little interest. Be it among the electorate, the opinion makers or, to some extent, the political parties too. Precisely because a win or two here and there in any byelection hardly affects or alters the ruling combine's strength in any state.

However, in Bihar, the November 3 bypolls in Mokama and Gopalganj will witness a direct contest between its two principal arch-rivals - the RJD, the single largest party, and its primary opponent, the BJP, the second largest party in the Assembly.

This will also be the first litmus test for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar after his latest political somersault in August when he dumped the NDA and rejoined the Mahagathbandhan. Incidentally, on both the seats where the byelections will take place next week, the RJD has fielded its candidates in a clear signal that it's the big brother in the alliance. The remaining six supporting allies in the Mahagathbandhan – the JD(U), Congress, Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM, CPI, CPI(M) and CPI-ML – have extended their unconditional support to the RJD nominee.

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The BJP has always made this charge that RJD chief Lalu Prasad and his son Tejashwi Yadav, the Deputy Chief Minister of Bihar, have dominated and dictated the terms in running the Nitish Kumar-led government, the fielding of RJD candidates on both the vacant seats has lent weight to this argument.

Past Imperfect

Mokama is an interesting contest as it has a history of history-sheeters romping home, irrespective of party affiliations. The seat fell vacant after the muscleman-turned-politician Anant Singh was disqualified as a legislator and debarred from contesting elections following his conviction in a criminal case for possessing an AK-47 assault rifle. Anant won from Mokama in 2005 and 2010 as a JD(U) candidate and as an Independent in 2015 despite being behind bars in a criminal case. In 2020, he won as the RJD candidate. In July 2022, he was convicted by the Patna High Court and disqualified by the Bihar Vidhan Sabha.

The RJD has fielded his wife Neelam Devi from Mokama, while Anant, who is cooling his heels behind bars, has asked his supporters to ensure his wife's victory. Interestingly, Nitish Kumar, who has no sympathy for wrong-doers and was instrumental in Anant's incarceration, has supported the candidature of Anant Singh's wife.

Pitted against Anant's wife is another bahubali (muscleman), Lallan Singh's wife, Sonam Devi of the BJP. This Lallan Singh (of the BJP) is not the same Lallan Singh of the JD(U), the latter being the national president of the Nitish Kumar-led organisation.

The Gopalganj bypoll is equally interesting because it is the home town of Lalu Prasad and Rabri Devi. However, the BJP's Subhash Singh never lost an election since 2005, but a byelection was necessitated following his death. The BJP has fielded his widow Kusum Devi. The RJD has fielded Mohan Gupta. Spicing up the contest is the presence of Lalu Prasad's estranged brother-in-law and former MP Sadhu Yadav's wife, Indira Devi, contesting as the BSP nominee.

"The result of these byelections will hint how the people of Bihar have reacted to the midway change of government in the state," political commentator N K Choudhary says. Some others believe the bypoll result would pave the way for a possible merger of the JD(U) and the RJD if, in case, Nitish genuinely wants to play an active role in national politics and hand over the reins of Bihar to his deputy Tejashwi. So, all eyes will be on the counting day on November 6.