India to top population list by 2050

A United Nations report released on Monday, states that falling fertility rates around the world will reverse the population growth of humans by the year 2100, even as India will account for nearly half of the estimated population growth by the year 2050.

The study, which shows a steady decline of global birthrates from 3.2 births in 1990 to 2.5 in 2019, is estimated to fall to 2.2 by 2050. In India, the numbers are a little different, amounting to 2.24 in total according to the report. By 2050, the country’s birth rate will be 1.86 according to the medium variant estimate. The country is expected to add 273 extra people to the population from now to the year 2050. In contrast, China’s current birth rate amounts to 2.1 and the country is expected to decline in population from 1.433 billion in 2019 to 1.402 billion in the year 2050. At that same time, India’s population is expected to reach 1.639 billion.

According to Professor C M Lakshmana, Head of the Population Research Centre in Bengaluru, the decline of India’s birth rate in not more pronounced because of higher birth rates in some Indian states than others. Data from India’s Sample Registration System (SRS) shows that while the total fertility rate in rural areas has declined from 5.4 births in 1971 to 2.5 in 2016; in urban areas, the rate fell from 4.1 to 1.8 during the same period.

“States where literacy and economic rates are low, such as those in the Economic Empowerment Group (EEG), including Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, account for nearly three-fourths of the population in India,” he said.

Dr Mahesh Koregol, a Bengaluru-based fertility consultant, attributed late marriages, delayed conception, increased focus on education and careers as being responsible for declining rates around the world.

“Even in rural areas of India, people are marrying later and having children at a later age, which is contributing to declining birth rates in several states,” Dr Koregol said.

Professor Lakshmana said that implications of continued Indian population growth are steep.
“The elderly population will increase, which means the country will have to enact social security programmes. At the same time, the ‘working population’ (aged 15-65) will become a majority, and jobs will have to be created for them,” he added.