India's CO2 emssions to rise to 3.8 gigatonnes by 2030

India's carbon-dioxide emission will rise to 3.8-3.9 gigatonnes by 2030, not 3.8-4.9 gigatonnes as was projected earlier, which is consistent with the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) pledge made at the 2015 Paris summit, according to a study by an Indian think-tank.

According to the study by the Centre for Policy Research, even if emissions reach to the said level by 2030, India’s expected per capita emissions will be lower than today’s global average.

It said the country was also expected to make a faster shift from coal to renewable energy.

India can expect a faster than predicted shift from coal to renewable energy, and lower than expected energy demand growth - both of which point to lower 2030 emissions, said Ankit Bhardwaj, one of the co-authors of the study.

As a significant emitter of greenhouse gases, but also as a developing country starting from a low emissions base, India is an important actor in global climate change mitigation, the study said.

India's modelling studies project a wide range of 2030 projections for CO2, the lowest projecting a 9 per cent increase from 2012 levels, and the highest a 169 per cent increase, it said.

India's emission was projected to rise to 3.8-4.9 gigatonnes by 2030 but the current study found emissions to rise 3.8-3.9 gigatonnes which is consistent with the NDC pledge made at the Paris summit, according to the study.

A closer examination of reference scenarios shows that recently introduced policies (2015 and beyond) are projected to have a material impact on reducing India’s future emissions, and would bring them in line with its nationally determined contributions that were pledged during the agreement, it said.

The study said even if India’s emissions double by 2030, they will be lower than China’s equivalent emissions in 2015.

"Even if emissions double by 2030, India’s expected per capita emissions will be lower than today’s global average. India can expect a faster than predicted shift from coal to renewable energy, and lower than expected energy demand growth - both of which point to lower 2030 emissions," it added.

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India's CO2 emssions to rise to 3.8 gigatonnes by 2030

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