AAP faces challenges as it heads to state polls in 2020

With 'Dilli Mein Toh Kejriwal' (Kejriwal in Delhi) tagline, the Aam Aadmi Party is attempting to make a come back in Delhi's political landscape after a disastrous outing in the Lok Sabha polls where it was relegated to the third position.

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal himself has sought to lift the spirit of a demoralised cadre ahead of the Assembly elections early next year, saying that they lost to a wave across India in the elections that people perceived as a fight between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi.

Kejriwal, who earlier suggested that Muslims had voted overwhelmingly for Congress in Delhi, has told party volunteers that people would return to vote for AAP in the "smaller election" to the Assembly compared to the "bigger one" for Lok Sabha and the vote would be for the work his party has done and not on any name.

While the leadership has not gone public on what actually went wrong, a section of AAP leaders believes that the full statehood campaign theme did not strike a chord with voters.

Sources said AAP will also have to fight the perception that it is obstructionist and Delhi could do better if both the state and central governments are led by BJP. "We need to convince the voters that we are not to be blamed. We need to change the perception," a senior AAP leader said.

Challenges before the AAP include regaining the lost ground before the Assembly polls amid fears that the BJP is heading to poach its a section MLAs and resurgence of Congress. Already two of them have defected to BJP during the Lok Sabha campaign, while rebel AAP MLA Alka Lamba has said that she will quit the party in early 2020.

Sources said several supporters who were active in 2015 had become inactive as they were sidelined. Many also became dejected with the internal scuffles in leadership, including one with Kumar Vishwas.

With AAP reduced to just one MP from Punjab, the political scenario for the party is not enthusiastic. In its stronghold of Delhi, the party not only failed to win a seat but was relegated to the third position in five out of seven Lok Sabha seats and three of them even lost their deposits after failing to garner one-sixth of the votes polled.

Another concern is the plummeting vote share after it peaked in 2015 Assembly elections when it had touched 54.59% after clocking 33.08% in 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Within two years, AAP's vote share dipped by more than half during the 2017 municipal polls to 26.23% and it further lost ground this time as it could garner only 18.11% votes as against Congress' 22.51% and BJP's 56.56%.

Congress has increased its vote share from 9.7% in 2015 to 21.09 in 2017 and this time, it has managed a better performance and hopes to go to Assembly polls with further strength.

For AAP, it had weaned away from a large chunk of minorities and Dalits from Congress in its existence of six years but the Lok Sabha elections have shown that they may be going back to the Rahul Gandhi-led party. At present, AAP leaders believe the voting in the Lok Sabha election was a one-off incident.