Opinion poll gives BJP victory in UP, Bihar

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to bag 40 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh and surprisingly emerge as the highest seat taker in Bihar.

According to ABP News-Nielsen opinion poll, the BJP is likely to bag half of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh with a vote share of 33 per cent while the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is predicted to get one seat.

For BJP, this is an increase of five seats from last month’s survey. Congress is predicted to get around 11 seats as compared to 21 seats in 2009. As per the opinion poll, Samajwadi Party is likely to get around 14 and Mayawati’s BSP could get about 13 seats.Samajwadi Party got 23 seats in the 2009 elections while BSP took 20.

The survey claimed that BJP is likely to get two seats of from the four segments in Bundelkhand region while Congress is likely to be wiped off and SP and BSP to get one seat each.

In Central UP, BJP is likely to get five seats while Congress is predicted to get three and BSP and SP to bag two seats each. BJP will gain 17 seats in Eastern Uttar Pradesh followed by BSP (9), SP (5) and Congress (4). The BSP has gained two seats as compared to seven seats in the opinion poll conducted in January.

The sugar belt of Uttar Pradesh, in which riot-hit Muzaffarnagar is located, seems to be a winning ground for BJP where it is predicted to get 16 seats. AAP may get one seat from the region while Samajwadi Party is likely to get six seats. BSP may get one seat while Congress will get four.

Interestingly, the survey does not give a single seat to Ajit Singh-led Rashtriya Lok Dal, which is considered to be strong in this Jat belt.

In Bihar, BJP is getting the benefit of JD(U) walking out of the 17-year-old alliance. From the existing 11 MPs, the BJP is likely to get  21 out of the 40 seats. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) may come down to nine seats from 20. RJD is likely to get five seats, Congress two and LJP one.