Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan pulls out all the stops as Left tries to retain last bastion

Kerala made headlines in 1957 when it formed one of the world’s first democratically elected Communist governments. Six decades and several ballots later, the southern state remains the last bastion of the CPM in India. With Assembly elections around the corner and nothing much left of the Left in the country (after it lost grip on West Bengal and Tripura), the question is: Will the Pinarayi Vijayan government retain the lone red stronghold?

The CPM camps expect the polls to be a cakewalk for the chief minister, who is riding high on a wave of welfare measures amid the Covid-19 pandemic. The changed political equations in the state, a better rapport with the Christian community and the BJP’s long-term agenda of tarnishing the Congress are also favourable for the CPM.

But critics cite Kerala's tradition of alternating between Communist and Congress regimes as an adverse factor.

The CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) enjoys a majority of over 90 seats in the 140-member Kerala Assembly, necessitating the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) to put up a tough fight. The BJP — which has only one seat — hopes to improve its position by projecting itself as an alternative party. The BJP is also keeping alive the Sabarimala temple issue on women's entry, trying to whip up some religious sentiments.

While the LDF came up trumps in the recent local body elections after battling serious allegations of a nexus in the gold-smuggling racket, political analysts say it cannot be conclusively considered as a hurrah on the horizon. Earlier also, there were instances of parties suffering setbacks in Assembly elections after performing well in the civic polls that preceded. Local connections of candidates and regional issues are the deciding factors in local body polls, and not the state government’s performance, they say.

However, welfare measures initiated by the government — such as free ration to all card-holders during the lockdown and enhancing social welfare pensions — are considered to have worked in favour of the LDF in the local body elections. Pinarayi Vijayan has decided to extend free ration supply for the coming months as well.

The government also plans to highlight its development initiatives in the run-up to the Assembly polls. The LDF has already initiated a grassroots-level campaign to amplify its achievements. Vijayan reportedly told party leaders and workers to play up the welfare schemes instead of going after the controversies being raked up by the Opposition. The Congress has raised a series of issues like rampant backdoor appointments of the government, besides the simmering Sabarimala row.

The CPM has already burnt its fingers by trying to justify its stand on women's entry into the hill shrine. Party central committee member M V Govindan’s statement that dialectical materialism was not practical in the present context invited criticism from within the party. A few CPM ministers also incurred the wrath of masses after they made objectionable remarks against the ongoing stir by job-seekers, who have alleged backdoor appointments by the government. Vijayan's justification of the regularisation of temporary staff, citing a similar practice by the previous Congress ministry, did not go down well either.

Former CPM leader and veteran political commentator Appukuttan Vallikkunnu said the CPM was deviating from its basic ideologies and the party will pay the price in due course. The CPM, which used to lead mass protests, is now criticising agitations by the educated unemployed for their livelihood, he said. Communism is now only in the name. Its chemistry has changed entirely. Pinarayi Vijayan is just implementing Narendra Modi’s policies as part of tactical understanding, he said.

Wooing the Christians

The changed political equations of Kerala, however, seem to be in favour of the CPM. One such is the entry of Kerala Congress (M) led by Jose K Mani into the LDF. Mani enjoys considerable support among the Christian vote banks of central Kerala.

Some other measures that have made Vijayan popular among the Christian community — hitherto considered as UDF’s vote banks — are: The implementation of economic reservation that benefits a large section of Christian communities, the appointment of a commission to study the backwardness of Christian minorities, and soft-pedalling the implementation of the Supreme Court order on the power tussle between the Orthodox and Jacobite factions of the Malankara Orthodox Syrian Church.

CPM politburo member M A Baby said the political tradition of Kerala is all set to witness a change this time, as the Left front will have a walkover to the second term. Kerala's general mindset is secular, while the Congress and the BJP are toeing communal lines.

The LDF is the secular power that can resist it, and hence, people will opt for it, Baby said. He also felt that the welfare measures of the government and its handling of the pandemic as well as floods and natural calamities will work in its favour.

It may be recalled that the CPM had set off a campaign about the Congress' tie-ups with outfits like the Jamaat-e-Islam, and claimed that the Indian Union Muslim League had an upper hand in the UDF. The CPM also alleged that Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi were maintaining a soft Hindutva line. All these could be considered as a political strategy to frame the UDF as a communal party.

The UDF, of course, countered it with a campaign over the Sabarimala issue but it is unlikely to have much impact now as the matter is pending before the Supreme Court.

Even Hindu bodies like the Nair Service Society have rejected the UDF’s stand. Bringing back Oommen Chandy to the forefront of Congress electioneering was also seen as a strategy to counter the CPM’s increasing rapport with Christian vote banks.

BJP vs Congress

The CPM is likely to gain some political advantage out of BJP's long-term agenda against the Congress. BJP national president J P Nadda recently said the UDF and the LDF are two sides of the same coin, and hence, both were enemies of the saffron party in Kerala. But political analysts differ and cite the BJP’s main agenda of tarnishing the Congress.

The BJP, which hardly sees any prospects of coming to power in Kerala in near future, may wish to see the Congress getting defeated in the state. This would help weaken the Congress at the national level too, as Congress leaders from Kerala now constitute a considerable chunk of Lok Sabha MPs of the party.

The UDF won 19 of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala in 2019, including Rahul's. Moreover, many Congress leaders in Kerala were said to be on the verge of switching sides to the BJP.

Vallikunnu points out that the inordinate delay in the proceedings in the SNC Lavalin corruption case against Pinarayi Vijayan is one indicator of a BJP-CPM understanding. The chances of any further development in the gold-smuggling case — in which even Vijayan’s principal secretary was arrested — is also remote in the present political scenario, he said.

Another senior political analyst C A Josukutty said the CPM has an upper hand now owing to the welfare measures of the government and its rapport with the Christian community. However, Kerala’s general mindset of not allowing a second term for the government in power and the current protests by unemployed youth are crucial factors, he added.

As polls near, Pinarayi Vijayan may also miss V S Achuthanandan, who was a star campaigner in the last Assembly elections. A popular leader and a crowd-puller, the 97-year-old is unlikely to return to active politics owing to ill health. Vijayan, often criticised for his stubborn ways, has to lead from the front this time.