Congress protests must not lose sight of Karnataka polls

The Congress is being criticised for not filing an appeal post-haste against Rahul Gandhi’s conviction by the Surat Metropolitan Magistrate’s court in a defamation case. While sentencing him to two years, coincidentally the exact minimum period of sentencing required for his disqualification, Gandhi was given 30 days to appeal the conviction and the sentence. It has already been a week, but the Congress apparently is still consulting its legal advisers.

The deadline for appeal is April 23. If Gandhi’s disqualification from the Lok Sabha is to be reversed he will have to decide whether to appeal, the court will have to admit his appeal, and then it will have to stay his conviction. The process of appeal will probably have to go through the sessions court, the High Court of Gujarat, and then finally the Supreme Court. It is quite conceivable that till the time the matter reaches the apex court, which may take a more balanced view of the entire ‘defamation’ episode, Gandhi would be out of Parliament. Beginning March 28 till April 30, the party has already announced a series of protests — christened Jai Bharat Satyagraha — from national and district to block levels.

The protests will coincide with the Karnataka election campaign. Polling for the Karnataka Assembly election will take place on May 10, and the results declared on May 13. Since Gandhi’s fate will be decided at the outermost, just two weeks before the Karnataka voters cast their ballot, it is essential that the party distributes and uses its political energy strategically. Although everyone desirous of political change at the Centre is advising the Congress to go back to the people and regain their confidence, the party must not spread itself too thin.

Nothing must distract from the party’s focus on winning Karnataka Assembly elections. Its street protests, first and foremost, must be concentrated in Karnataka. If it offers arrests across India, the government might oblige by stuffing its leaders in jail. The Congress cannot presume that the government would take no action against its protests. Even if the protests remain non-violent and democratic, they would be taking place in an environment which is not entirely tolerant of dissent. The Congress and the Opposition have rightly identified that the soft underbelly of the Narendra Modi regime is the purported symbiotic relationship of its top leadership with Gujarat businessman Gautam Adani. The ruling party would not allow slogans that deepen the public perception of the link alleged between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the rise in Adani’s fortunes.

The public perception of a Modi-Adani link cannot be countered by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s current strategy of painting Gandhi as anti-OBC. Everybody knows that neither the complainant in the defamation case nor the other two Modis mentioned in Gandhi’s speech — Lalit Modi and Nirav Modi — are OBCs. If the OBC narrative looks like failing, the street protests and confrontations with supporters of the current dispensation could turn violent.

Arrests would follow and a lot of the party’s energy would be taken up by arranging lawyers and bail for those in jail. The agitation would have served no purpose at all if by frittering away its members and limited resources, the Congress loses the Karnataka election.

The BJP would be emboldened to claim that even a nationwide agitation failed to revive the political fortunes of the Congress, and that the voters do not care whether Gandhi is in Parliament or in jail. That is why the Congress needs to strategise very carefully on how to distribute its political energy across India in the Jai Bharat Satyagraha agitations it has planned. If the agitation does not acquire greater momentum in Karnataka relative to the rest of India, it could prove very costly.

While the disqualification of Gandhi from Parliament is a great opportunity for the Congress to breathe new life into its organisational structures through agitations, it needs to focus its attention on two issues: How to win Karnataka legislative elections, and how to work for Opposition unity without over-projecting the role of the Congress.

In its efforts to work for these twin goals, the party would have to deal with the conundrum that there is unlikely to be Opposition unity in Karnataka itself. It is quite possible that Trinamool Congress leader and Chief Minister of West Bengal Mamata Banerjee would be campaigning for the Janata Dal (Secular) in the state. Similarly, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party would also campaign against the Congress and for the JD(S).

The Congress will have to accept that such electoral compulsions will drive Opposition parties to oppose it in their respective states well. Yet a broader understanding with the Opposition will have to be forged in the run up 2024.

(Bharat Bhushan is a senior journalist.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.