Delimitation in J&K may not give Centre's Kashmir policy legitimacy

Here is why, despite delimitation, BJP could fail to get a malleable legislative assembly to rubber-stamp decisions taken on August 5, 2019

The primary purpose of the delimitation of assembly constituencies in the Union Territory (UT) of Jammu and Kashmir is, as Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) president Mehbooba Mufti has suggested, to ensure that the decisions taken by the Narendra Modi government on August 5, 2019, become irreversible. This would be achieved if they were rubber-stamped by a resolution of an elected legislative assembly.

The Modi government's contentious decision to remove the special constitutional status of the erstwhile state of J&K and its bifurcation into two UTs could then be repackaged for international critics as the will of the people.

The Delimitation Commission's draft recommendations fit well with the design of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) dispensation. It has increased the assembly constituencies in Jammu by six, taking them from 37 to 43 and allotting only one additional constituency to the Kashmir Valley, taking it from 46 to 47 in a proposed 90-member legislative assembly. Ostensibly, the Commission was necessitated by the J&K Reorganisation Act of 2019. This helped the government go against the Supreme Court judgement and its reiteration in 2010, mandating a freeze on the delimitation of assembly constituencies in J&K till 2026. That is the year when a nationwide delimitation exercise is also due based on the 2021 Census.

Despite a Gazette notification for the Census on March 28, 2019, the 2021 Census exercise has been postponed indefinitely, citing the pandemic. However, that did not stop the government from holding a Kumbh Mela, inaugurating Ram Temple construction at Ayodhya and the Kashi Vishwanath Temple Corridor. Even more questionable is the fact that the J&K Delimitation Commission has not used even the 2011 Census figures for its exercise. The game was up for the Kashmiri population the day the Commission announced that it would "take into account constituencies' practicality, geographical compatibility, topography, physical features, means of communities and conveniences available."

One way of increasing the Hindu majority seats, on which the ruling majoritarian Hindutva dispensation can hope to score over others, was to split some of the Hindu majority seats in Jammu into two. Another was to redraw the constituency boundaries to reduce the weight of Muslim voters in the population, where they were dominant.

While details of the newly demarcated constituencies are not yet available, what is known is that one seat each has been increased in the districts of Kathua, Samba, Udhampur, Doda, Kishtwar and Rajauri in the Jammu region and Kupwara in Kashmir. The Hindu population of Kathua is 87.61 per cent, of Samba 86.33 per cent and Udhampur 88.12 per cent. Here splitting the existing constituency would produce two Hindu dominated ones.

The delimitation exercise is less simple in districts where the Muslim population is dominant – i.e. in Kishtwar (Hindus 40.72 per cent, Muslims 57.75 per cent), Doda (Hindus 45.77 per cent, Muslims 53.82 per cent) and Rajouri (Hindus 34.45 per cent, Muslims 62.71 per cent). Further details alone will reveal whether, in the new constituencies, the Muslim population share has been reduced, a fear openly expressed by the mainstream Kashmiri parties ever since the delimitation exercise began.

However, the best-laid plans of mice and men can go awry in politics. The Kashmir Valley still has a four-seat advantage over the Jammu region. There is also no guarantee that the BJP will win all of the 43 seats in Jammu. The Congress remains a formidable foe there. In the last J&K Assembly polls, a BJP sweep had resulted in the party winning 25 seats out of 37. Assuming that it repeats its performance in the next Assembly elections and wins in the six new constituencies as well, its tally will only increase to 31 – way off the majority mark of 46.

While the delimitation exercise has ensured that the Muslims of not only the Kashmir Valley but even Jammu will be more than ever determined not to vote for the BJP, Jammu's Hindu population of the region is also unhappy with the party because of changes in domicile laws and land sale to outsiders.

The Congress is likely to be the main adversary of the BJP in the region. The BJP bosses know this. While the BJP might hope disgruntled Congressman Ghulam Nabi Azad would form a new party, his aim as of now seems to be more to put pressure on the Congress to accommodate him.

Should his strategy fail, and were he to form his own party, how would he fare? Out of the Congress, Azad does not have much of a standing in J&K. Prime Minister Modi has already diminished his career prospects by his fulsome praise in Parliament. If Azad is perceived as the BJP's Trojan horse, no Muslim in Jammu will vote for him or his party. Azad carries little purchase with Muslim voters of the Valley. The 2008 Amarnath Shrine agitation started after Azad, as the then chief minister, allotted forest land to the shrine board. He was forced to step down in the face of public protests – which resulted in six people being shot dead by the police in Srinagar and over 100 injured. His gains, therefore, are likely to be limited.

The creation of nine reserved seats for Scheduled Tribes (STs) and seven for Scheduled Castes (SCs) may also not help the BJP much. The STs are mostly Gujjar Muslims. Given the polarisation that the BJP has created, attracting the Muslim vote is a far cry for it. The SC seats are likely to get divided between the parties in Jammu.

How then will the BJP get a legislative assembly that is malleable? It seems that the Chankayas of the BJP will still have to indulge in what they do best – horse-trading, breaking other parties and using the government agencies to intimidate legislators and parties into submission. At the end of the day, pushing a legislative resolution to show that its Kashmir policy is acceptable to people may then turn out to be a hollow claim.

(The writer is a journalist based in Delhi)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.