Geoengineering could invite unrest

Prolonged heat waves in recent months in the US, China and Europe accompanied by a lack of rainfall have hurt agriculture, tourism and the economy world over. Farmers in Germany say their harvest is shrinking by 40%. Potato harvest in France and other European countries has also shrunk. India and Pakistan are wrecked by flooding, another disastrous consequence of climate change.

Soaring energy prices and supply disruption as a result of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and lockdowns during the Covid-19 pandemic have led to skyrocketing inflation and slowed the economy, leading to job losses.

The surge in power demand has also added fuel to fire. Sources like hydroelectric and nuclear power are disrupted by water shortages. Nuclear power plants relying on river water to cool down are closed down in France. Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant — the largest in Ukraine — is under Russian forces and the IAEA is concerned about the risk of a global radiation disaster. Countries have been pledging to cut the use of coal, gas and oil for power generation. Besides wind and solar energy, nuclear power is the next best option for climate mitigation.

Climate change effects are increasingly being experienced in recent months in the northern hemisphere. Global leadership is not willing to reshape the development model that led to what we are facing today. There could be a lot more damage before any concerted action is taken. Longer heat waves, higher temperatures, intense showers, longer dry spells, droughts and crop loss are all going to be regular features in the coming years.

US Speaker of House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan made China take several actions including calling off its talks with the US on climate mitigation. The time to phase out fossil fuel burning is running out, yet the two highest greenhouse gas emitters have suspended their cooperation in finding a solution.

Geoengineering research is leading to debates to employ technology to alter the climate system and slow down the warming of the planet. The technology has two categories: Solar radiation modification (SRM) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR). The technology governing the reflection of solar radiations back in space is called SRM technology. Scientists are developing it to make the sun brighter so that the radiation is reflected back into space as if a light is reflected from a mirror.

Solar radiation is absorbed by ‘cirrus clouds’, which in turn warms the earth. The removal of cirrus clouds can help minimise the absorption of solar radiation to check warming. Carbon dioxide removal technology is the removal of carbon from the atmosphere by deploying machines or even by large-scale greening of the planet by planting trees of native species.

Many parts of the world have also been resorting to cloud seeding. It has been done in China on a large scale. To overcome extreme heat and drought conditions, 900 missiles were launched to burst the clouds and induce rain in the southwestern city of Chongqing.

Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka also resorted to the technology in the past and induced rains. Two months ago, when floods wreaked havoc in the Godavari basin of Telangana, Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao cried foul and claimed an external hand behind the cloud bursts, bringing misery to the people of the state. Climate change has the potential to bring conflicts between two regions/nations.

Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) is one of the emerging technologies of geoengineering. In large volcanic eruptions, millions of tonnes of sulphur particles called aerosols get injected into the upper atmosphere, creating a reflecting surface there. It has the potential to reflect solar radiation back into space, which brings cooling to the earth. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991 cooled the earth by .6 degrees Celcius for two years. Scientists plan to artificially release millions of tonnes of aerosols to mimic a Mount Pinatubo-like situation.

Study models have indicated that SAI can mitigate the consequences of climate change and rich nations can afford it. But it may have an adverse impact on rainfall, crop production, water cycle and biodiversity conservation. It can lead to conflicts between nations if any State uses it unilaterally. Once the injection of aerosols is suspended, it can hasten warming. If the focus is shifted to this technology, the programmes announced by different countries to cut emissions and follow the trajectory of transition from fossil fuel burning to renewable energy may lose attention. Nevertheless, the technology must be governed by international laws.

(The writer is retired Principal Chief Conservator of Forests, Karnataka)