In US Presidential Election 2020, fear is the key

The President himself is undermining the legitimacy of the election itself, and is unlikely to go quietly if he loses

It is the world’s biggest economy, technological leader and leading military power, but paradoxically, the prevailing sentiment in the United States in the run-up to the November 3 presidential election is fear. President Donald Trump emphasises the fear of China, of mob violence, of socialism, while the rival Biden/Harris Democratic camp stoke fears of a flailing economy, racial tension, unchecked Covid-19, a stolen election with foreign interference by the usual suspects, and Trump’s refusal to exit quietly.

Even if the Democrats win the Electoral College of States and the popular vote, they correctly anticipate Trump’s refusal to accept defeat and an acrimonious transfer of power involving the law courts. Al Gore, the former vice-president who conceded defeat to George W Bush, despite winning the popular vote in 2000, declared that Trump “is planting doubts to undermine people’s confidence. So, Americans have to gird ourselves against this despicable strategy.”

On the first day of the Republican Party convention, Trump told his followers that the Democrats were using the Covid-19 pandemic to manipulate the election results and posted mail-in ballots could lead to election fraud – “the only way they can take this election away from us is if this is a rigged election.” But he had also warned of a rigged election in 2016 when he was trailing Hillary Clinton, before going on to win in the Electoral College, though not the popular vote. As far as the latter was concerned, Trump raised the absurd bogey of mass voting by illegal immigrants, claiming that three to five million of them had voted for Clinton.

Trump, who is trailing in the polls, is already going beyond all the bounds of propriety to discredit the elections and has openly threatened to reject an unfavourable outcome. In so doing, he is playing to the fears and anxieties of the less educated, less well-to-do white American, his core support base. Trump wants to be seen as tough on crime at a time when the possible breakdown of law and order, along with racism, is an important election issue.

There are four possible scenarios that could unfold: narrow wins by Trump or Biden, a large Biden win, or a closely contested outcome, but there is one common factor, which is that enraged partisan people in the street will not accept the result. Due to Trump’s authoritarian instincts, fully evident as the election date approaches, American politics have become hugely acrimonious on both sides of the Republican/Democrat divide. Former President Barack Obama has warned that democracy could not survive a Trump second term, and his wife Michelle advises Americans to “vote like your lives depend on it.”

With polls showing Republicans more inclined to vote in person and the Democrats by post, contested ballots could take enormous time to litigate and lead to competing slates of electors in swing states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona, where Republicans control the legislatures. Election night might turn into election week or even election month because of the surge in postal balloting due to concerns about the Covid-19 pandemic. There is a genuine possibility that no winner will be declared on November 3 or 4 and the country will be left waiting to determine which of the two candidates will be the next president.

The US Constitution gives authority to state legislatures to nominate electors and they could follow Trump’s lead in claiming improper procedures and fraud in postal balloting. The Governors in three of the swing states -- Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan – are Democrats, whose signatures are needed to authenticate the legislatures’ decisions, which further complicates the issue.

Meanwhile, Trump has set the stage for a battle in the courts and on the streets if he loses. Republican well-wishers are hoping Trump will change course from fear-mongering to set out his plans for a second term, but he lacks credibility when he cannot justify the lack of progress on his agenda for the past three and a half years, even on his alleged key policies of immigration, healthcare, and massive spending on infrastructure. What he is offering to deliver in a second innings is the denigration of American ‘socialists’ and ‘liberals’, and deeper polarisation in society.

Besides trailing in the polls behind the Biden/Harris ticket, the Republican convention attracted a smaller national viewership than the earlier Democratic one, which should cause Trump great concern. Polls must be treated with caution; in certain locations, it is socially desirable not to be seen voting Republican, and a large number of those polled believe their neighbours would vote for Trump. Nonetheless, the only events that could perhaps save Trump’s campaign is a waning of the pandemic, an economic upturn, a catastrophic mistake by Biden, or some entirely unexpected turn of domestic or international events that imparts momentum to the incumbent President.

A further danger to the transfer of power exists if Trump were to lose the election by a huge margin in both the Electoral College and the popular vote, and if his manoeuvres fail to subvert the result. Such a scenario suggests that the outgoing president will, in the time between November and the January inauguration of his successor, use his position to make as much money from his position as possible, travel widely abroad to damage the reputation of the incoming administration among foreign leaders, prevail on the FBI to deny or delay the necessary clearances to incoming officials, and refuse to participate in any formal or informal transition briefings.

(The writer is a former foreign secretary)