Pakistan on the brink again

An upcoming Lahore rally could be the tipping point for the drive against Pakistan’s ‘deep state’ and its star protégé, Imran Khan

This Sunday, hundreds of thousands of the disaffected and the angry will converge on Lahore, Pakistan’s political nerve centre, where the government of Imran Khan will face another tirade from the rising star in the political firmament, Maryam Nawaz of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), and the powerhouse of the Jamiat ul Islami, Maulana Fazlur Rahman.

But unlike the five rallies that preceded Lahore – in Gujranwala, Karachi, Quetta, Peshawar and Multan – which saw Opposition anger rise to a crescendo but little else, Lahore could be the game-changer, the tipping point for its drive against Pakistan’s ‘deep state’ and its star protégé, Imran Khan. And it’s not just because the wrecking ball with the names of 11 Opposition parties written on it has been gathering popular momentum as it heads straight for Islamabad and Parliament square.

This time, Imran Khan faces the embarrassment of a no-confidence motion that will play itself out not in the National Assembly (NA), as he said it should, but out on the streets, where the Opposition will live up to its threat and resign from the House, en masse. Adding to that will be a long march to the capital in January. Unless, that is, Imran Khan gives in, and steps down.

So far, the prime minister has dug his heels in, scoffing at the Opposition threat to quit the NA by saying that he would simply call for bypolls to the seats vacated, and win them.

But there is a singular difference between the rallies that preceded Lahore, and Sunday’s jalsa – the Opposition isn’t stopping with demanding just Imran Khan’s head. The Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), the 11-party alliance formed in September, wants more heads to roll. In the PDM’s crosshairs are no less than the Chief of the Army Services Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa and the ISI chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed, the two men they believe have brought Pakistan to such a pass by meddling in politics and propping up an inept prime minister.

Gen Bajwa, incidentally, was given an extension as Army chief by then prime minister Nawaz Sharif, just as the latter did with Gen Pervez Musharraf, under the mistaken belief that Bajwa, being from a minority community, would pose no threat. Musharraf, a Mohajir, was not supposed to, either. Sharif was proven wrong both times!

Imran’s response

As a frantic establishment works the phones behind the scenes to reach out to leaders of the PDM, pleading with them not to escalate matters further, in public, pro-establishment figures are resorting to the usual dirty tricks, throwing mud at Opposition leaders, hoping some of it will stick. The most damaging is Human Rights Minister Shireen Mazari, a close aide to Imran Khan, claiming that the Opposition is being funded from abroad.

The government also sought to use the cover of Covid-19 to shut down the rallies, but it couldn’t stop the earlier ones. In Multan, for instance, the PDM drew far bigger crowds than anyone had anticipated. Former Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) prime minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, a Multan native, brought in the huge crowds, despite the best efforts of Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi to scupper the rally.

Imran has now decided to let Lahore happen. But at what cost? His reputation as a much-loved iconoclast, political outsider and anti-corruption crusader is at stake. Despite his tirade against politicians, who he claims have only come out on the streets to pressure the government into lifting the corruption cases against them, the numbers at the anti-government rallies have grown.

But in attacking Opposition leaders, instead of opening up channels of communication to bring down the temperature, his ability to guide Pakistan out of these troubled waters is in question. More so, as the Opposition seems to be in no mood to back down, and have privately told interlocutors that Imran Khan’s vendetta politics that targets politicians and journalists, indeed anyone who questions him, must be brought to an end. In a sign of his growing intolerance to criticism, he withdrew, abruptly and without explanation, from social media last week after TV anchor Hamid Mir roasted him on his talk show.

Imran’s refusal to lift the corruption cases has also fed into the Opposition's narrative that the establishment is targeting them selectively, victimising leaders like Zardari and Nawaz, forced to retreat to safe havens in Dubai and London, respectively.

The Opposition’s challenges

Political commentators in Pakistan who lean towards the all-powerful Army have been quick to highlight the many schisms within the 11-party alliance. Others are talking up the differences within Sharif’s PML-N itself. The perceived rift between Nawaz and his brother Shahbaz, in fact, stems from the latter’s soft side. He argues for compromise and meeting the Army half-way, even though he has been at the receiving end of Army ire and, alongside his son Hamza, faces multiple jail sentences.

The rise to prominence of Nawaz’s daughter Maryam Nawaz as the face of the Opposition during the PDM rallies, eclipsing Shahbaz’s sons, has not helped matters. Maryam’s feisty persona and her refusal to be intimidated by the scare tactics of Imran’s government are backed by Nawaz, who is set to speak at Lahore, and Fazlur Rahman, who wants Imran Khan gone at any cost.

The resignations from the National Assembly will impact neither her, nor Nawaz or Fazlur, none of whom are members, but it will affect Asif Zardari and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari of the PPP, both members of the National Assembly.

The government’s votaries therefore do have a point. Neither the PPP nor the Awami National Party (ANP) are amenable to sacrifice their hold over the respective provinces that they dominate, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, at the altar of the PDM’s plans to bring down the Imran Khan government.

The divisions within the PDM may give the cricketer-turned-politician some comfort, say insiders, as the schism within the Muslim League itself is a worrying development, as is the perceived softer stance of the PPP and the ANP and their ambivalence over the planned mass resignations from the national and provincial assemblies, which, if it comes to pass, will put the government on the mat.

Will the Army self-correct?

But it’s cold comfort. Nawaz Sharif is already in receipt of 14 resignations from his own parliamentarians. In Balochistan, three legislators have offered resignations. The PPP is also coming round to the view that the strategy of quitting the National Assembly to force Imran Khan to resign is a viable option that could let the party retain its hold on Sindh while the Muslim League returns to power at the centre.

The parallels with the past are uncanny, presaging the future. A judges’ street protest against the sacking of a Chief Justice of the Supreme Court by Gen Musharraf led to him stepping down as President in 2008, and his subsequent retreat to Dubai. It had the blessings of then Army chief Gen Ashfaq Kayani.

This time, too, insiders say that the Opposition is working on the stratagem that the Army will correct itself. The Army’s second-rung generals are deeply troubled by the developments that have pushed Pakistan to the brink, just as the US has come looking to Pakistan to be the stabilising force in the Af-Pak region. But will the Army go far enough and replace Bajwa or Faiz Hameed or both, as well as Imran Khan, is the question.

(Neena Gopal is a senior journalist who has worked in the Middle East and reported from various hotspots. She is also the author of The Assassination of Rajiv Gandhi)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.