Pakistan's deal with TTP cause for concern

Close on the heels of a deal with Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan, the Pakistan government has reached a ceasefire agreement with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The government and the banned TTP will observe a month-long ceasefire, which could be extended if both sides agree. Talks between the two are expected to follow and the Afghan Taliban will mediate between the two sides.

A government-TTP ceasefire is welcome as it will give the Pakistani people, especially those in the tribal areas, a much-needed respite from violence. However, there is much to worry about. The TTP is a terrorist organisation that has killed thousands of Pakistanis, including 154 people, most of them children, in the 2014 attack on an army-run school in Peshawar.

Is it willing to or at least considering a change in its thinking or murderous ways or are the truce and talks just a temporary time-out to recoup? Given the lack of transparency, little is known about their demands and how far the Imran Khan government will go to appease them. Implementation of Sharia law in tribal areas is a long-standing demand of the TTP. Will the government agree to this? Will the government free jailed TTP militants? It is possible that other militant groups will draw inspiration from the TTP to cut deals with the Pakistan government.

The Pakistan military is perhaps confident that its decades-old patron-client relationship with the Afghan Taliban and the clout it continues to wield over the Taliban regime in Kabul – the interim government is dominated by pro-Pakistan elements – will work to deliver a deal with the TTP. It may. But how dependable an ally is the Taliban? The Taliban’s own future is hardly certain, given the grave economic challenges in the country and the growing threat posed by the Islamic State-Khorasan.

The TTP, which had earlier restricted its attacks to the tribal areas along the border, has carried out attacks on Chinese nationals and projects of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). These have drawn Beijing’s ire. The Chinese government is reported to have cracked the whip on the Pakistan government to improve security for CPEC projects. It is likely that the Pakistan government has initiated the truce and talks with the TTP to rein in the group.

Should the talks fail, Islamabad will go all out against the TTP, carrying out the kind of military operations that almost wiped out the group in 2015-16. With Afghanistan still unstable and the tribal areas likely to go up in flames in a few months, should the government-TTP talks fail, the Af-Pak region is staring at a period of prolonged violence.

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