Philippines a long way away

The new president’s family has a notorious past

Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr has been elected Philippine’s next president. His massive victory—he secured 30 million votes, almost twice as many as his nearest rival Leni Robredo—does not come as a surprise; every opinion poll in the run-up to voting day indicated that he was well ahead of the other candidates. What is shocking and even saddening, however, is that Filipinos have voted for a man whose father and family looted their country and emptied out its exchequer. The president-elect is the son of dictator Ferdinand E. Marcos Sr, under whose martial law rule Filipinos suffered enormously. It triggered a ‘people’s power’ movement that culminated in Marcos Sr’s ouster from power and flight from the country. Have Filipinos forgiven his wife Imelda Marcos’ excesses and forgotten what the masses achieved in the historic revolution of 1986?

Marcos Jr’s victory in the recent election is partly the result of a powerful disinformation campaign that his team ran in the run-up to voting day, portraying his father’s military rule as a glorious era of rapid capitalist development. People seem to have bought into that campaign. But also, those who ruled the Philippines in the decades since Marcos Sr’s exit in 1986 had failed the people spectacularly. The country has witnessed dozens of major corruption scandals post-Marcos Sr and wealth has remained in the hands of a few families. Consequently, the return of the Marcoses to power did not repulse the Filipino masses. Additionally, as in other parts of the world, voters were drawn to his promises of a ‘muscular’ leadership. Marcos also benefited from having the Philippines’ hugely popular outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte’s daughter as his running mate.

During his election campaign, Marcos Jr provided few details of the policies he proposes to pursue as president. There are a few pointers to the foreign policy his government will pursue. In the context of the Indo-Pacific emerging as the focus of competition and conflict between the US and China, will Marcos Jr lean towards the US, as did his father, or will he reach out to China? China can be expected to woo Marcos Jr assiduously. However, despite its strong public diplomacy in the Philippines, Beijing is viewed negatively by most Filipinos because of its aggressive actions in the South China Sea. Additionally, the Filipino security establishment is in favour of strengthening relations with the US. Therefore, while Marcos Jr may play along with Beijing initially, he is likely to maintain a balanced foreign policy between the US and China overall.