Sero survey numbers: Do not slack off

'Prepare for the worst' must be the motto

The results of the fourth nation-wide sero survey which indicated that two-thirds of the country may have developed antibodies against Covid should not lead to any complacency about fighting the epidemic. The results are based on testing some 27,000 people spread over 70 districts in 21 states in June and early July. The prevalence of antibodies was 67.6% overall, and 62% among the unvaccinated group. The last survey, conducted in the same districts, had shown a prevalence rate of 24.1%. The increase in the antibody presence is not surprising because the second wave of the pandemic took place, and some vaccinations were done between the two surveys. The rise in antibody levels is positive at a time when the case load is increasing in some parts of the country. But it is better to look at the survey to see how many people do not have adequate presence of antibodies.

The survey shows that about 400 million people are still vulnerable. That is large enough to overwhelm the public health system again if a third wave of the epidemic happens and if more potent variants of the virus arise. This is not entertaining negative thoughts for the sake of it but considering the possibility of the worst scenario to be able to fight it best. It may also be unwise to think that the sample of 27,000 would give a correct picture about the whole of India. A sero survey done in Delhi in January had found that over 50% of the city’s population had antibodies. But the city was ravaged by the second wave a few weeks later. Experts have always warned that the presence of antibodies is no guarantee against infection by the virus. This has been proved again and again in India and in other countries.

The ICMR has recently made this clear. Sero surveys are useful and are needed at the state level also as part of the data needed to understand the disease, but government policies and the conduct and behaviour of people should not solely depend on their results. There is the need to avoid large social, religious or political congregations. The Supreme Court recently stopped such festivities and reprimanded the Kerala government for relaxing some restrictions under pressure from interest groups. There should be more testing and surveillance and genomic studies. It should also be noted that the vaccine coverage is still low. Though it was announced that vaccinations would touch about one crore daily in August, it is known that even the lower target for July has not been reached. So, all the elements of Covid protocol like washing of hands, wearing of masks and maintaining social distance are still of utmost importance.