State polls don’t indicate decline in BJP’s popularity

It is no understatement to say that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under-performed in the recently concluded Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana besides the bypolls for both Lok Sabha and Assembly seats across seventeen states. It is also not wrong to contend that the verdict, in a way, marks return of economic or local factors in elections as against the 'national' issue of muscular nationalism, the principal reason for the party's performance in the Lok Sabha polls, which saw it bettering its 2014 tally by more than a score seats.

Does this mean that the results indicate that support for BJP's core Hindutva ideology is beginning to diminish? Before examining this question, it would be prudent to put the party's performance in perspective and analyse whether its loss is comprehensive and ideological in nature, or due to a combination of factors, typical to the first-past-the-post system.

In Maharashtra in 2014, BJP had contested elections on its own after its alliance with the Shiv Sena (SS) was severed. Likewise, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress party put up individual candidates. In the four-cornered contest, the four parties fielded 260, 282, 278 and 287 candidates respectively. When results were announced, the tally for the four of them stood thus: 122, 63, 41 and 42. The BJP polled the highest vote share – 27.81 per cent, followed by SS, NCP and INC with 19.35, 17.24 and 17.95 percentage points respectively.

Results this, time show that pre-poll calculations are not prudently done by simple aggregation of seats and vote share when new alliances are formed. The seats and vote shares of the BJP, SS, NCP and Congress this time are as follows – 105 (25.75), 56 (16.41), 54 (16.71) and 44 (15.87). This suggests that the vote share of all parties declined but NCP and Congress won more seats. Additionally, partners of the two alliances lost votes from aggregates of what they individually polled last time, suggesting that some of their support did not shift to their partners.

Moreover, the NCP-INC alliance was benefited by smaller partners in its coalition who won six seats. In contrast, the BJP-Sena combine suffered on two counts. Firstly, both parties were driven by chief ministerial ambitions and wherever opportunity existed, they undercut one another. Additionally, both parties either 'instigated' independent candidates to contests from seats where their partner was in the fray, or could not control rebellion in the ranks from those who were deprived of a nomination because of the pact between the two Saffron parties. This time 13 independent candidates were elected as against seven in 2014.

The combined vote share of BJP-SS is 42.16 per cent as against 47.16 in 2014. Likewise, the NCP-Congress combined vote is at 32.58 percentage, as against 35.19 that they polled while contesting separately. By any yardstick, the performance of the BJP-SS in terms of vote share is formidable and does not point to severe erosion in support, it is just that micro factors undid the incumbent alliance. In contrast, it is not that there was a surge for either NCP or INC – they added to their tally chiefly because of better seat-by-seat management of the NCP in its area of strengths.

The picture is different in Haryana however. The BJP secured an absolute majority in 2014 by winning 47 of the 90 assembly seats with a vote share of 33.2 percentage. The challenge to the party principally came from Indian National Lok Dal which won 19 seats and a vote share of 24.11 percentage. The Congress party won 15 seats with a vote share of 20.58. This time, the BJP tally slipped to 40 while the Congress figure rose significantly to 31 while the newly formed Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), to which the almost entire support of the INLD shifted, secured10 seats and more than 25 per cent of the votes polled.

Startlingly though, while the BJP may have lost in terms of seats, its vote share has risen by more than two points to 36.49 per cent. Significantly the vote share of the Congress has also risen from 20.58 in 2014 to 28.08 while the vote share of INLD has shifted to the JJP. This suggests that there has been a consolidation of support for both the BJP and Congress in terms of social base, but minor reworking at the level of constituencies and a slight decline in the performance of smaller parties has altered the verdict's macro-picture.

This suggests that while there is a reason for the Opposition to celebrate the temporary halt in the BJP juggernaut, the figures show little ground for them to become ecstatic. The BJP's rise as a dominant party is not sudden but is the result of a gradual shift in the political outlook of the people. Compared to the time when the BJP was a peripheral party till late 1980s, there is much greater support now for the ideological tenets of the party, especially on the issue of minority rights and privileges and over how people define their nation and nationhood.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi may have overplayed his hand by seeking votes on basis of his government's 'achievements' since his re-election, but this in no way suggests that the decision to de-operationalise Article 370 of the Constitution is not backed by large sections of the people in northern, western and eastern India. It is likewise for other core issues which make up the Hindutva platform. It is only parts of southern India that the appeal of the Hindutva ideology is not as vociferous as in other parts of India.

Yet, even in southern India, the BJP is no insignificant force. For instance, the by-election results from Kerala reveal that while the BJP may not have won any of the five seats, its candidate performed creditably. In Manjeshwar, part of the Kasaragod Parliamentary seat in north Kerala, the BJP candidate was a close runner-up to IUML. Its candidate polled 57,480 as against 65,407 secured by the Muslim League nominee and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) candidate's 38,233 votes. In two other seats, Konni in the Pathanamthitta Lok Sabha constituency, and Vattiyoorkavu in Thiruvanathapuram, the BJP candidates won closer to 40,000 and 30,000 votes respectively.

Another piece of evidence which shows that the support for BJP's political outlook remains intact is the subtle dilution of the Opposition parties' stance on secularism and their greater embrace of the BJP's politics of cultural nationalism. The response of redoubtable leaders like former PM, Manmohan Singh, who was muted in his criticism of Vinayak Damodar Savarkar when the BJP proposal to honour him with the Bharat Ratna was raging, is a pointer to the refusal of parties to take the BJP head-on on its nationalistic plank.

There has also been a significant alteration in the stance of sections of the intelligentsia on accommodating the confrontationist stance of a large section of the majority community. While there was a time three decades ago when the majority snorted at the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) slogan of ‘Garv se kaho hum Hindu hain’ (say with pride that you are Hindu), there has been a dramatic alteration since then. An increasing number of people are now eager to display their Hindu identity.

This certainly demonstrates a sea change in the socio-political outlook of significant and vocal sections of the people and translates into widespread support for the BJP. Setback in an election or two is not indicative of a 'decline' in the programmatic support for BJP and can instead provide a lesson – like the 2015 defeats in Delhi and Bihar did – after which the party steadied its ship.

(Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay is a Delhi-based journalist and author. His latest book is RSS: Icons Of The Indian Right. He has also written Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times (2013))

The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.