The Dhankhar conundrum: TMC-BJP self-goal in Bengal

The Left-Congress-ISF can now try to wean minority voters away from TMC by spreading the word of a TMC-BJP deal

In politics, like in chess, too many tactical manoeuvres by both sides throw up uncertainties that can often damage the prospects of the players involved, something that West Bengal has witnessed this week.

Both, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have lost credibility to some extent in the state by striking an alleged secret deal centring on the vice presidential candidate.

It all started with a meeting in Darjeeling on July 13 of the then Governor of Bengal Jagdeep Dhankhar, Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and her counterpart from Assam Himanta Biswa Sarma. It sparked speculation when Dhankhar was declared the vice presidential candidate for the NDA.

Also Read: Vice Presidential election unravels Opposition unity again

The speculation got oxygen for days when the TMC declined to spell out its stand even after Margaret Alva, an old-timer, was pitted against Dhankhar. Finally, on July 21, the day of the Shahid Diwas observed by the TMC since its inception with a massive rally, Abhishek Banerjee announced the party MPs will abstain from voting in the vice presidential polls.

The BJP approaching the TMC and the TMC reciprocating came almost like a bolt from the blue. The Congress and the Left, who were accusing the BJP-TMC of a "'Didi-Modi setting", or fixed match, for quite a while, all of a sudden felt vindicated.

The unexpected tactical move has dented the TMC's credibility, as it has unbarred the path of someone to a high constitutional post whom, as the governor of Bengal, the TMC had accused of being "undemocratic", "BJP's party worker", and "peddler of half-truths". Mamata Banerjee had called Dhankhar corrupt and a "hawala accused". TMC MP Mohua Moitra claimed Dhankhar was a "beneficiary of illegal residential land allotment".

Not only that. Last January, some TMC MPs requested President Ramnath Kovind to remove Dhankhar for his "serious breach of oath and office". The letter further read, "...the Governor has failed to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution and repeatedly breached law declared by the Supreme Court. From the seat of the highest Constitutional office in the state, Governor Dhankhar has been inducing divisive politics..."

It is only natural that such a man will be vehemently opposed on his way to the post of the country's vice president and ex-officio Rajya Sabha Chairman. But the TMC decided to help him ascend the high pedestal. After nominating Dhankhar, BJP president J P Nadda praised his "out of box role" in Bengal, making him, according to Nadda, the "people's governor". Now, after securing the TMC's tacit support, Nadda has reasons to feel vindicated.

The decision to not oppose Dhankhar has not only made hollow the TMC's nonstop vitriolic criticisms of the governor. It has also exposed it to the greater danger of alienating a section of its core support base, the Muslims, who are 30 per cent of Bengal voters and had en masse voted for the TMC that polled 48 per cent votes in the 2021 assembly elections.

Also Read: NDA’s vice-president nominee Dhankar knows his (constitutional) articles well!

The Left-Congress-ISF will now have a better opportunity to wean them away by spreading the word that the TMC is making deals with the BJP to protect Abhishek Banerjee and others from the clutches of the CBI.

However, the TMC is not the only loser of this game. It also dents BJP's credibility in Bengal and that too quite seriously.
Some BJP workers were killed in post-poll violence last year, and according to the state BJP, many of their supporters cannot return home out of fear. Just three months ago, in the Rajya Sabha, Union Home Minister Amit Shah said, "If you go to Bengal, you might get killed." And then came this intense speculation of a secret deal. Is the deal to secure the TMC's support, if needed, after the 2024 general elections?

The development could also demoralise BJP workers, who have put their heart and sinew in the service of their party to fight the TMC. Will they continue with the BJP, join another party or give up on politics altogether? The party lost much of its weight in Bengal as no central leader stood by the workers when they were attacked or harassed after last year's polls. The party's vote share in most of the elections thereafter was, on average, 10 per cent. Eventually, Suvendu Adhikary, the opposition leader in the assembly, galvanised the BJP workers into action. But the road ahead will be difficult for him, too, if what happened in the hills of Darjeeling on July 13 cannot be explained.

The entire episode came when some political insiders speculated that the generational change in the TMC would be spelt out more sharply within a year, which could be advantageous for the BJP. Interestingly, just the morning after the TMC announced its decision to abstain from the vice presidential polls, the Enforcement Directorate (ED) raided two ministers' houses in the teacher recruitment scam. But if it was intended to dilute the understanding theory, it was ineffective.

Perhaps both sides have made too many tactical manoeuvres prematurely, risking their respective future in the state.

(Diptendra Raychaudhuri is a journalist and author based in Kolkata)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.