Karnataka Assembly polls: JD(S) bracing for a make-or-break election

The party’s vote share is stagnant, if not shrinking, with the BJP and the Congress looking to break the Gowda family’s hold over the Vokkaliga community

The 2023 Assembly election is decisive for the H D Deve Gowda-led Janata Dal (Secular), the only established regional party in Karnataka where it is fighting for space against the BJP and Congress.

The party's vote share is stagnant, if not shrinking, with BJP and Congress looking to break the Gowda family's hold over the Vokkaliga community that dominates the Old Mysuru region that comprises 61 seats (excluding the 28 constituencies in Bengaluru).

Since its inception in 1999, when the Janata Dal split and Gowda formed his own JD(S), the regional party has never enjoyed power on its own strength. In 2006, JD(S) legislature party leader H D Kumaraswamy became the chief minister in a coalition with the BJP. Then, in 2018, Kumaraswamy occupied the top post after joining hands with the Congress.

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For the 2023 Assembly election, the JD(S) has announced an ambitious mission of winning 123 seats. Experts have dubbed this as a daydream. However, the party's knack of becoming the kingmaker could keep it afloat all the same.

"They will not come to power independently, but they will continue their hold on some constituencies, which will be a sizable number," political analyst D Jeevan Kumar says, adding that the JD(S) will be the kingmaker if there's a fractured mandate. "Despite two national parties being strong, the JD(S) has not lost its support base and as per my prediction, they will reach 40 seats and be the deciding factor in forming the government," he says.

The JD(S) has not managed to cross 58 seats, its highest tally that was reached in the 2004 Assembly election after which it joined hands with the Congress whose N Dharam Singh headed a short-lived coalition.

According to University of London professor James Manor, a long-time observer of Karnataka politics, JD(S) suffers from "over-centralisation" and "dictatorial leadership". Family-centered politics is causing discontent within the party's organisation even as there have been exits from the JD(S) to Congress. "These things sound worrying if you're a JD(S) enthusiast," Manor said at a webinar last month.

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Senior analyst P S Jayaramu points out that the political base of the JD(S) is restricted to the Vokkaliga-dominated southern Karnataka where it has traditionally fought the Congress.

"The party is led predominantly by Deve Gowda who is the strongest leader of the Vokkaliga community. His stint as chief minister and later as prime minister allowed the party to establish itself as a political entity in the state. In addition to its caste appeal, the party’s emphasis on agriculture and irrigation has helped in playing an important role in state politics," he says. "I feel JD(S) constitutes the third pillar in Karnataka politics. This factor acquires significance as one party led government coming to power is not an easily achievable goal for both the Congress Party and the BJP," Jayaramu says.

Now, with D K Shivakumar, a Vokkaliga, as the Karnataka Congress president, the JD(S) faces a renewed challenge in the Old Mysuru belt.

The question of the party's survival revolves around Gowda's age, family politics and shortage of active leaders. During the 2018 Assembly election, the JD(S) suffered damage when the Congress repeatedly described it as the BJP's 'B' team, which ate into Muslim votes. So, the party's decision to bring CM Ibrahim as its state president might be a step towards regaining minority votes.

Kumaraswamy has been aggressively promoting the party's Pancharatna Yatra.

"We need to be careful not to write off the JD(S)," Manor said. "This is seen by some people as Deve Gowda's last election. His emotional pleas for votes may attract more support from Vokkaligas than Shivakumar’s. Also, some Vokkaliga voters also resent Siddaramaiah’s emphasis on minorities, backward classes and Dalits. Perhaps, JD(S) may not do too badly. If it does even somewhat well, it’ll be bad news for Congress," he said.

Janata Parivar veteran P G R Sindhia, who is now with Congress, maintains that the JD(S) is relevant in Karnataka. "Its existence will remain even after the 2023 election."