High poll turnout gives incumbents the jitters

The BJP and the Congress-JD(S) alliance have their fingers crossed as polling saw a considerable increase in 18 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka where their incumbent MPs have sought re-election.

That is because a high voter turnout is often seen as a vote for change.

“Academic studies have shown that voters come out in large numbers due to fatigue against the incumbents and because they feel their representatives have not met their expectations or aspirations,” political analyst Harish Ramaswamy said.

According to the final voting data released by the Election Commission, Karnataka has recorded an impressive voter turnout of 68.62%, up from 67.20% in the 2014 polls. Polling saw a rise in 10 Lok Sabha constituencies with incumbent BJP MPs and eight with Congress-JD(S) MPs.

A “strong undercurrent” in favour of Prime Minister Narendra Modi will help the BJP, said Praveen Patil, founder of electoral analysis firm 5Forty3 Datalabs. “There are two primary observations from the turnout differential tracker that we deployed in Karnataka. Firstly, there was increased participation among Lingayat, Vokkaliga and Brahmin voters and conversely there was a slight decline in Muslim voter turnout across the state,” Patil said. “It is only among Kurubas and Muslims that the Congress-JD(S) alliance has found traction.”

The BJP and the Congress, however, claimed the high voter turnout was in their favour. “Whenever voting has increased, the BJP has won. In Gulbarga, for instance, the BJP will win because polling has increased,” BJP MLC N Ravikumar said. “Even in seats with BJP MPs, 90% of the new voters have voted for us. Plus, the votebase of the Congress and the JD(S) is shrinking,” he claimed.

Social Welfare Minister Priyank Kharge of the Congress countered this. “Traditionally, a higher voter turnout has benefitted the Congress,” he said. Karnataka Congress research department chief Mansoor Ali Khan, too, maintained this. “It is clearly a vote for change against the BJP,” he said.

Psephologist Sandeep Shastri pointed out that there was no empirical evidence to show higher polling percentage meant pro or anti anyone. “It depends on the contest in a particular seat. For instance, high polling in Mandya clearly shows that the JD(S) is on the back foot. And voter turnout in North Karnataka reflects the sharp contest between the BJP and the Congress,” he explained. The increase in turnout can be attributed to the mobilisation of voter turnout by both parties, he said.