In the Bengal Assembly elections of 2021, the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress won a historic victory. Immediately after this mandate, Mamata Banerjee decided to expand her organisation beyond Bengal and handpicked her nephew, Abhishek Banerjee, the national general secretary of the TMC, to accomplish this work.
Goa was the first state that the TMC selected as its battlefield but lost miserably. The second state was Tripura. In the recently held bypolls for four Assembly seats in the state, the TMC came fourth in all the four seats it fought. There are several state-specific reasons behind this defeat in Tripura. But, this result is a reality check for Mamata Banerjee. Her party leaders are tired and swamped by the Central Bureau of Investigation-Enforcement Directorate probes on several alleged scams in Bengal. It is time for the TMC to assess its organisational strength in Bengal first, find a 'Chanakya', and then foray beyond its home state.
The TMC's failure in Tripura is unlikely to surprise those able to see past the hype it created. However, finishing fourth in all four seats while its candidates also forfeiting their deposits raises concerns for the party in the state. The TMC received 2.1 per cent, 2.98 per cent, 3.3 per cent, and 2.96 per cent of the polled votes in the four seats. The result follows the party's lacklustre show in the civic polls in Tripura held earlier this year. However, the TMC had at least come second in the Agartala civic polls.
Absence of a local face and a robust organisation
The TMC is a Bengal-centric political party. When the party decided to expand in Tripura, the idea was to woo the Bengali-speaking population of that state. Mamata Banerjee faced a roadblock in Goa due to the language divide, but Tripura did not pose such a problem. According to the 2011 Census, over 65 per cent of people in Tripura speak Bengali, making them the largest linguistic group in the state.
However, the TMC failed to create any base within Tripura's Bengali population. The absence of a well-known local leader with credibility and mass appeal hobbled its efforts. Subal Bhowmick, the lone local in the party's higher echelons, didn't become its state unit president until much later. The Tripura unit depended on leaders with their political bases in Bengal and Assam.
Initially, Mamata Banerjee appointed Sushmita Dev to look after the Tripura unit. Later Abhishek Banerjee appointed Ranjib Banerjee to look after the Tripura unit. Rajib Banerjee is a former Bengal TMC cabinet minister who had joined the BJP but returned to the TMC. According to TMC insiders, Sushmita Dev, a former Congress Lok Sabha MP from Assam, currently representing the TMC in the Rajya Sabha, had some ground connections in Tripura. But the TMC's organisation suffered after Rajib Banerjee was handed the responsibility of looking after the party unit in Tripura.
The lack of a credible face and weak grassroots organisation failed to attract local leaders. A couple of local leaders who had joined the party earlier also left. Sudip Roy Barman and Ashish Shah joined the TMC in 2016 but went over to the BJP in 2017. Significantly, both Barman and Saha joined the Congress earlier this year. Barman won the bypoll from the Agartala seat on the Congress ticket.
No tribal support for TMC
Tribals make up 31 per cent of the population in Tripura. They have a vibrant culture entirely distinct from Bengalis. Any political party wanting to rule the state must connect with the tribal population. The tribal vote influences result in 35–36 seats. The TMC has no presence within the tribals. It attempted to join forces with Pradyot Debbarman's TIPRA Motha, but the efforts were unsuccessful.
Thus, the TMC not only lacks a credible face and a robust organisation, but it does not also have a coherent strategy for Tripura.
TMC in Tripura needs a 'Chanakya' and his 'niti'
Mukul Roy was the TMC's original 'Chanakya', who joined the BJP in 2019, but returned to the Mamata Banerjee-led party after the 2021 Bengal polls. However, he is sidelined for his ill health and lack of credibility inside the party.
Today, the TMC does not have a single leader who can work as a troubleshooter with his nose to the ground who can build consensus among its competing stakeholders. Abhishek Banerjee is not a grassroots politician and is yet to become a successful strategist.
In Tripura and other states where the TMC is trying to expand, the absence of strategy and a consummate strategist is a setback for the party. The TMC has no proper roadmap for campaigning, booth-level organisation building or even creating a mass connect.
Mamata Banerjee understood that a new-age strategy and a strategist would be needed to win the Bengal polls and hired political strategist Prashant Kishor and the I– PAC. The TMC does have a contract with the I-PAC till 2024, but as Prashant Kishor is not part of the organisation anymore, this arrangement is not working out on the ground.
Why TMC should focus on Bengal and Meghalaya
The top TMC leaders are under the CBI scanner for several alleged scams, including coal smuggling, cow smuggling, the irregularities in teachers' appointments in School Service Commission and primary teacher recruitments. Several other top leaders are under the CBI scanner, including Abhishek Banerjee and Partha Chatterjee, the second most important cabinet minister.
In this situation, the party does not have the capacity to focus on any other state and work beyond Bengal. Mamata Banerjee is not able to move beyond the state much and travels across the districts to rectify the party's image. The best bet for the TMC is to focus on Bengal and Meghalaya. The latter is the only state where beyond Bengal, the TMC has a presence and is the opposition party.
The TMC can do better in Meghalaya in the upcoming elections as it already has a local face and leader in Mukul Sangma. An unplanned, ego-driven expansion venture without credible leadership, strategist, and grassroots connections has already cost the TMC heavily. This is why right now, the expansion of the TMC is a distant dream for Mamata Banerjee.
(Sayantan Ghosh, an independent journalist and columnist, is a former policy research fellow at the Delhi Assembly Research Centre)
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