Indian Air Force: High on josh, low on jets

India’s combat aircraft fleet depletes amid continuing threat of a pincer strike by China & Pakistan

As it turns 90, the Indian Air Force stares at the grim reality of its fighter fleet declining to less than 30 mostly comprising legacy jets despite China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) accumulating hundreds of fourth generation fighters and Pakistan getting a steady flow of modern fighter aircraft from China besides receiving a $ 450 million sustainment package from the USA for its F-16 fleet.

The number plating of Srinagar-based 51 Squadron operating the MiG-21BIS on Friday would be followed by shutting down three more such squadrons in the next three years, bringing an end to a 60 year long run of the iconic combat jet in the IAF. The phasing out of Jaguars is also likely to start soon. The twin-engine air superiority S-30MKI has a big serviceability issue and the home grown Tejas LCA is yet to come up in the ladder in terms of capability. The IAF’s most potent weapon is the French-origin Rafale that provides the IAF with a comprehensive combat craft, which can be further augmented with hardware and software changes as a part of the India-specific enhancement package. But unfortunately India has only two squadrons of them.

Read | IAF’s ‘Guardian of the Valley’ gets number-plated; one more MiG squadron phases out

With barely any forward movement on the purchase of 114 medium multi-role fighters or buying additional squadrons of Rafale, the planners at Vayu Bhawan would find it hard in the coming months to match the capability of the adversaries if faced with a two front scenario. Over the next 15-20 years, the IAF would never be even close to its sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons (some experts believe at least 60 squadrons are needed) but neither the length of India’s restive borders, nor the challenges posed by China and Pakistan would change. Just two squadrons of the Rafale are simply inadequate. One option is to quickly shift the assets from one theatre to another as wargamed in Ex Gagan Shakti in 2018. But such an exercise is time consuming and needs prolonged preparations.

According to a Pentagon report, the PLAAF and PLA Navy Aviation together constitute the largest aviation force in the region and the third largest in the world, with over 2,800 aircraft (not including trainer variants or UAVs) of which approximately 2,250 are combat aircraft. The Pakistan Air force is weaker than the PLAAF, but by no means a pushover as it has a formidable beyond-visual-range air combat capability and a higher pilot-to-aircraft ratio when compared against the IAF. The new sustenance package is likely to sharpen the F-16 fleet further.

Against the prospect of the Chinese and Pakistani air power improvements and the threat of a coordinated attack, the Indian story is of budget constraints and sluggish procurement, even though all the three services are aware of the potential challenges that may arise from a two-front scenario. The IAF enjoyed certain advantages like terrain, atmosphere and combat experienced when compared with the PLAAF, but those advantages can be offset either by quickly deploying more aircraft or enhancing the capability of the fleet by force multipliers like mid-air refueling or AWACS. Both these air forces operate a greater number of airborne tankers and early-warning surveillance aircraft than the IAF.

Read | A frightening fighter gap in the IAF

On the western front, India currently has an edge over Pakistan because of the Rafale. “Because of the Rafale and Meteor missile, the PAF will not come close to the border and try a misadventure. But we may lose such an edge due to the delay in the procurement cycle,” said an IAF officer who did not wish to be identified.

The Narendra Modi government that accused its predecessor UPA under Manmohan Singh for inaction on the 126 MMRCA deal, did not take any decision on the 114 multi-role fighter project though it has been in power for eight years. The home grown Tejas LCA in its current avatar is only good as a trainer and it may take some time before the subsequent versions (Mk-1, Mk-1A and Mk-2) come up to the level of more capable foreign combat jets that has responded to the 114 fighter programme. The Tejas LCA, according to an officer, can make up for the numbers of depleting squadrons but not in terms of capability. “The Chiefs have said that they can manage with the existing fleet, but the inflow of the multi-role fighters has to happen,” said Air Vice Marshal Manmohan Bahadur (retd), a distinguished fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies.

Moments of Glory

1965: India-Pakistan war: IAF shot down 73 Pakistani aircraft over 3 weeks, lost 35.

1971: India-Pakistan war, (Liberation War of Bangladesh): The IAF’s finest moment as it dominated the skies in the eastern and western fronts, pushing the enemy towards surrender.

1999: Op Safed Sagar, Air Ops during 1999 Kargil Conflict): Air power was successfully used at such an altitude for the first time.