World goods trade may remain below trend in Q4 2019

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) on Monday said the global goods trade is expected to remain below trend in the fourth quarter of the current year amid increasing protectionism and increase in customs duties.

The forecast does not augur well for India as the country's exports contracted for the third month in a row in October by 1.11 per cent to USD 26.38 billion.

"World merchandise trade is expected to remain below trend into the fourth quarter of 2019," according to the WTO’s latest Goods Trade Barometer.

The Goods Trade Barometer provides real-time information on the trajectory of world merchandise trade volumes relative to recent trends.

It said the indices for international air freight, electronic components, and raw materials have all deteriorated further below trend.

Electronic components trade was weakest of all, possibly reflecting recent tariff hikes affecting the sector, it added.

In September, WTO economists downgraded their trade growth expectations for 2019 to 1.2 per cent, down from the 2.6 per cent forecast in April.

They attributed this substantial deceleration to slowing economic growth, increased tariffs, Brexit-related uncertainty, and the shifting monetary policy stance in developed economies.