Existing cuts not enough to curb rising temperature

UN report seeks emission reduction effort by 2025- 30

The voluntary emission cuts promised by the world could be insufficient to keep the temperature rise by two degree Celsius as recommended by the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, a new UN report suggested.

The report on intended national determined contributions (INDC) – released on Thursday – will trigger backroom negotiations to decide further cuts in the run up to the Paris climate summit.

“The INDCs have the capability of limiting the forecast temperature rise to around 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100,” said Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

The report takes into account 119 INDCs of 147 Parties submitted by October 1, which represents about 86 per cent of all the green house gas emissions in the world.

It does not directly assess implications for temperature change by 2100 since requires data beyond 2030, but independent analysis using different methodologies reveal temperature rise could be three degree Celsius or more.

“This by no means is enough but a lot lower than the estimated four, five or more degrees of warming projected by many prior to the INDCs,” Figueres said. One analysis by the Washington based non-profit group Climate revealed that temperatures could be well above 3.5 degree Celsius by 2100 if nations continue the business as usual approach beyond 2030.

“The commitments thus far get us on the pathway, but they don’t get us where we need to be. More aggressive reductions are needed,” stated John Sterman at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, who did the analysis.

Overall, China, India, and other developing nations will account for about 80 per cent of total global emissions by 2100.

Less than two months before the summit, environment ministers from the BASIC group members – Brazil, South Africa, India and China – met in Beijing on the problems faced by these emerging economies and the outcome of the Paris meeting.

“We had a good meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli. Discussion revolved around the problems faced by BASIC countries (regarding climate change) and on the outcome of COP-21 in Paris,” Environment Minister Prakash Javadekar said in a brief statement.

With the estimate not falling within the 2 degree Celsius scenarios by 2025 and 2030, the UN report states greater emission reductions effort than those associated with the INDCs would be required after 2025 and 2030 to hold the temperature rise below the 2 degree Celsius threshold.