Pak presence must not distract from aims of Afghan meet

It is unfortunate that the “Heart of Asia” Conference on Afghanistan (Amritsar, Dec 3-4) is getting enmeshed in the present tension between India and Pakistan. More attention is now on whether Sartaj Aziz, the de facto foreign minister of Pakistan, will attend the conference, hold bilateral meetings or raise the Kashmir issue.

The impending visit of Sartaj Aziz, who is advisor to Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on national security and foreign affairs, is already shifting the focus from Afghanistan. Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar’s interview on Nov 21 which was made in a different context was given a different interpretation. As the host, India has the responsibility not to dilute the aims of the conference in view of our traditional friendly relations with Afghanistan.

The Amritsar meeting is a continuation of the “Istanbul Process” which was initiated on Nov 2, 2011. It was a special effort for regional security and cooperation for a secure Afghanistan. It was also an advance preparation to encourage regional powers to help ensure its security and development after the withdrawal of international forces.

After Istanbul, such conferences were held in Kabul, Almaty, Beijing, Islamabad and New Delhi. India is hosting the second conference this year after the officials’ meeting in April. There are 14 member countries: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and the UAE. Seventeen countries including USA support the “Istanbul Process”.

The Istanbul process has not made much headway due to several factors. The political instability in Kabul after the 2014 presidential elections has affected its foreign and security policies. This is partly because Afghanistan’s security depends upon its relationship with Pakistan and the latter’s links with the Taliban. A new destabilising development is the possible return of Taliban leaders to Afghanistan as reported by AP on Nov 26.

The report says that it is to “build on this year’s gains in the war and to establish a permanent presence”. At the same time, it also projects a possibility that this might be Taliban’s attempt of distancing themselves from Pakistan. While Islamabad continues to be resentful of India’s intentions, China, Iran and Russia grudge US dominance over the Istanbul process. Thus, what was achieved through the Istanbul process was a modest progress on disaster management, infrastructure and education.

The US as the dominant power would tend to control the process through their policy of “Six step Confidence Building Measures” (CBMs) announced in 2013. In the field of counter-terrorism, it seeks to enhance the capabilities of Central Asian States, Afghanistan and Pakistan to resist terrorism. The US offers technical assistance, training and equipment and also fund efforts to support moderate voices through education, sports and media. As a slogan, this is impressive; but can this be actually implemented to benefit Afghanistan?

The CBMs under Trade and investment would involve working with regional partners on regional and international trade agreements, accession to the WTO, and private sector investment. It would seek to expand economic opportunities in the “Heart of Asia” region by providing training, credit and networking to build up the capacity of local entrepreneurs for business growth and regional commercial linkages.   An interesting ingredient in this policy is to use more of the Northern Distribution Network (NDN) which is already creating economic opportunity in Central Asia.

The NDN is a bi-directional air, land and sea supply route connecting Baltic and Caspian ports with Afghanistan via Russia, Central Asia and the Caucasus which has been developed for the troops supply since 2009. Perhaps this might be a long-term US move to depend less on the unreliable supply routes through Pakistan, which they turn off based on their whims.

Then there are other CBMs on education, training on narcotics control and disaster management. The sixth CBM is about regional infrastructure development, production and transport of energy, improvement of their electric grid, cross-border regional energy connections and development of the gas sector.

Partnership role
India has had a historic partnership role in Afghanistan from King Zahir Shah’s time. We had completed several infrastructural projects on a bilateral basis even before the Istanbul Process had started. We supported Afghan education and health care sectors.

We trained Afghan teachers and public servants in India. According to our Ministry of External Affairs, India’s pledged assistance was $1.2 billion. Another $1 billion of economic assistance was announced on Sept 14, 2016 when Afghan President Ashraf Ghani visited New Delhi.

We built their Parliament building as our contribution to their democratic transition. We gifted Afghanistan 400 buses, 200 minibuses and 115 municipal utility vehicles. We have completed 89 projects in agriculture, veterinary, public health, water and sanitation, education, women and family welfare areas and also set up a host of vocational skills and development programmes.

India and the US have agreed to have a Trilateral Dialogue with Afghanistan during the Indo-US Strategic and Commercial Dialogue in New Delhi on Aug 31, 2016.
The joint statement expressing deep concern over growing violence and terrorism in Afghanistan did not mention any concrete steps except involving the international community to work towards “a stable, democratic, united, sovereign, and prosperous Afghanistan” Subsequent to this both sides met on Sept 21, 2016 on the margins of the UN Assembly and agreed “to coordinate and align their assistance with the priorities of the Afghan government.”

The Amritsar meeting is being held in the backdrop of recent sensational international developments which are in Pakistan’s favour. Russia is now keen on joining the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and making use of Gwadar port for exports. China is deploying its navy to guard Gwadar port.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif made an announcement on Nov 26 in Turkmenistan of joining the multi-model transport agreements of “Ashgabat and Lapis Lazuli Corridor”. Would Pakistan try to dominate the Amritsar Conference, being buoyed by these new agreements to counter India’s move to isolate it from the Saarc?

(The writer is former Special Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat)
(The Billion Press)