Will the government in West Bengal change this time without any major event?

The Congress' and the Left's ousters were preceded by major political events that shook the state

The results of the West Bengal Assembly elections will be declared on May 2. While the BJP is hopeful of coming to power by ousting the Trinamool Congress (TMC), the electoral history of the state shows that whenever there has been a change of guard, it was preceded by a major political event or issue. The traditional behaviour of the voters in Bengal indicates that unless the acts of the ruling party agitate them to a great extent, they usually don’t vote it out of power.

When the Congress was first ousted from power in Bengal in 1967, the public mandate was preceded by acute food shortage in the state and persistent agitation against it by the Left parties. The movement reached its zenith in the ‘Khadya Andolan’ (Food Agitation) in 1966 which resulted in the Congress being voted out of power and the first non-Congress United Front Government was elected.

However, the tenure of the United Front Government (1967-1972) was plagued with the violent Naxal Movement and political uncertainty. It generated severe discontent among people which resulted in the Congress being voted back to power in 1972.

The key reason behind Congress’ loss in the 1977 Assembly elections was the imposition of emergency in the country by its government at the Centre. The curbs on individual freedom became a crucial factor for public discontent against the Congress which led to its defeat, and the Left Front came to power in Bengal for the first time.

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The Left Front went on to rule the State for 34 years. Its ouster from power in the 2011 Assembly elections by the Mamata Banerjree-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) was preceded by two significant land agitations which shook the roots of the Left Front’s formidable rural vote base.

The alleged atrocities committed by a section of local Left leaders during the Left Front government’s land acquisition drive for industrialisation turned rural voters — who kept it in power for 34 years — against it. The land agitation at Nandigram and Singur catapulted the TMC to power in 2011.

Now after 10 years, the BJP has emerged as the principal opposition to the TMC in Bengal. The saffron party’s hope for coming to power in the state for the first time is based on its performance in the last Lok Sabha elections where it won a record 18 seats.

However, the 2021 Assembly elections were not preceded by any events or issues which can be compared in terms of the significance and impact to those which resulted in the ouster of the Congress and the Left Front government.

The allegation of corruption and lack of industrialisation in Bengal are the highlights of BJP’s campaigning in the Assembly elections. However, the Sarada and Narada scams which created a buzz in the state before the 2016 Assembly elections failed to create any impact on TMC’s electoral fortunes which returned to power with even a bigger mandate. It remains to be seen whether the 2021 Assembly elections bucks the trend.