Covid-19: Active cases drop by 27,000 for the first time, but experts remain worried

Six days after India reported one million plus active corona positive cases, the number of such cases dropped by more than 27,000 for the first time in the last 24 hours.

The one million-mark was reached on September 17 when there were 10,09,976 active Covid-19 patients. The number stayed at 10 lakh plus for the next four days, but dipped to 9,75,861 on Tuesday – a reduction of 27,438 active cases.

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Since September 19, for four consecutive days, the number of new cases was less than new recoveries reported daily. The gap was the widest on September 22 when 75,083 fresh cases were recorded but the number of new recoveries was more than a lakh, thereby reducing the overall number of active cases.

“Such successive increase in recovery cases over active numbers is being seen for the first time since May,” said Union Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan at a press conference here.

Public health experts, however, refused to read much into a single day drop and warned that it would be prudent to recheck the testing numbers in the backdrop of reports of a drop in testing in several states.

“A sudden drop in the number of cases while a welcome sign is also a cause for concern. There is a need to closely review testing data and transmission dynamics and have mechanisms to determine that those who need the tests have access to it,” Oommen John, a senior research fellow at the George Institute for Global Health told DH.

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The government insisted that testing numbers were on a rise and more than six crore tests were carried out even on Tuesday. Despite such an increase in the number of tests, India’s death per million (64) and cases per million (4031) figures remained one of the world’s lowest, said Bhushan Babu, an epidemiologist at the Public Health Foundation of India.

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Some of these issues may come up for discussion at a high-level review meeting of the Covid-19 scenario in seven states on Wednesday. The meeting would be chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The situation in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Delhi, and Punjab that account for 65.5% of the total confirmed cases and 77% of the total deaths will be discussed in the review. Maharashtra, Punjab, and Delhi now report high mortality with more than 2% Case Fatality Rate.

Also, more than 63% of active cases are concentrated in these seven states.