Exit polls predict win for BJP in Jharkhand

PDP may emerge single largest party in J&K

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may grab power in Jharkhand while the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is expected to emerge as the single largest party in Jammu and Kashmir where the verdict may throw up a hung Assembly, according to various exit polls on Saturday.

If the exit poll predictions turn true, it will add more power to the dream run of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah, who have made the party win Lok Sabha elections and followed it up with victories in Assembly polls in Maharashtra and Haryana.
These indications are adding more woes to the Congress. Jammu and Kashmir is the only ray of hope for the Congress as the PDP may prefer the grand old party than the BJP in government formation.

Three exit polls have given PDP the edge over other parties in Jammu and Kashmir. India TV-CVoter and ABP-Nielsen polls gave the PDP 32-38 seats while CNN-IBN-Axis/APM poll gave the party led by Mufti Mohammed Sayeed 36-41. In the 2008 polls, the PDP got 21 seats. In a House of 87, a party needs 44 seats to get a majority.
Though the party may fall short of its Mission-44+ plan, the BJP is projected to get 27-33 seats as per India TV-CVoter and ABP-Nielsen while the IBN gave it 16-22.

The saffron party, which had 11 seats in the outgoing Assembly, is expected to improve its tally, thanks to Modi’s whirlwind campaign. The exit polls show that the BJP may gain in the Jammu region.

The ruling National Conference, which had 28 seats, may face the worst ever performance. It could be reduced to 8-14 seats (CVoter and Nielsen polls) or 9-13 seats (Axis-APM). The Congress, which was an ally of the National Conference until recently with 17 seats, is likely to be another big loser managing to get 4-10 seats, as per separate polls by Nielsen and CVoter.

The Axis-APM poll gave the Congress 9-13 seats.

Jharkhand is predicted to go to the BJP (23 seats at present) with Today’s Chanakya giving 61 (+/-8) seats for the saffron party while Cicero gave 41-49, C Voter 37-45, Nielsen 52 and Axis-APM 37-43.


Jammu & Kashmir    87 seats

Party*    IndiaTV/CVOTER     ABP/ Nielsen    CNNIBN/ Axis-APM

PDP (21)     32-38                32-38                    36-41
NC (28)      8-14                    8-14                       9-13      
Cong (17)    4-10                  4-10                        9-13
BJP (11)       27-33                27-33                     16-22
Others            —                      2-8                         7-9

Jharkhand    82 seats

Party *    Today’s       India today/    IndiaTV/    ABP/          CNNIBN/
                 Chanakya    Cicero             CVoter    NIELSEN      Axis-APM

BJP (23)      61 (+/-8)     41-49            37-45          52            37-43      
Cong (21)    4 (+/_2)         7-11              3-7            9             7-11      
JMM (18)     12 (+/-4)        15-19           15-23        10           10-14      
JVP (11)    2 (+/-2)                 —                4-8         6            12-16      
Others    2 (+/-2)                8-12                 7         4               4-8   
        (includes JVP)