India set to experience normal monsoon this year: IMD
India is set to experience a “normal” monsoon in which the country would receive 100% of its long-term average rainfall between June and September, India Meteorological Department announced here on Wednesday.
“The 2020 South-West monsoon will be 100% of the long period average with a model error of 5% on either side,” M Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences said here.
India’s long period average rainfall is 88 cm, which is the average monsoon rainfall between 1961 and 2000.
The news about a normal monsoon comes amidst the COVID-19 gloom with the pandemic hitting the economy hard. Riding high on the normal monsoon, India hopes to record a good agricultural productivity to alleviate some of the economic pain.
Rajeevan flagged high probability of a normal monsoon this year. There is 41% probability of a normal monsoon (96-104% of the LPA); 21% probability of above normal monsoon (104-110% of LPA) and 9% probability of excess (above 110%) monsoon. Taken together, there is more than 70% chance of the monsoon being a normal or excess.
The chances of a poor show are slim with the IMD model recording 20% probability of below normal (90-96% of LPA) rainfall and 9% probability of a deficient monsoon.
El Nino (unusual warming of the Pacific) and Indian Ocean Dipole (a temperature seesaw in the Indian Ocean) – two weather events that adversely impacts the monsoon – are neutral at the moment, which is good news for the monsoon.
Rajeevan said there was a chance of La Nina (reverse of El Nino) developing towards the second half of the monsoon season, which may further boost the rainfall.
IMD director general M Mahapatra said the weather bureau would issue its forecast on the onset of monsoon around May 15.
The met office has also modified its baseline record of monsoon onset and withdrawal dates based on the rainfall pattern seen at 149 stations in the last few years. While the onset date remains the same, monsoon now arrives 3-7 days late in western India.
Also the withdrawal from north-west India is now delayed by 7-14 days.
Deccan Herald is on WhatsApp Channels| Join now for Breaking News & Editor's Picks