Growing challenge in Afghanistan

A country once known for its effective management of diversity today finds itself in a situation where the only Sikh candidate running in the elections is now dead, along with 18 other minorities, in a gruesome attack earlier this month. A suicide bomber targeted a group of Sikhs and Hindus on their way to meet Afghanistan’s President Ashraf Ghani in the eastern city of Jalalabad, leading to this carnage.

The Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for the attack, saying the strike, targeting a group of “polytheists”, was carried out by its Khorasan unit. From around 250,000 Sikhs and Hindus in Afghanistan before the 1990s, only around 1,000 now remain in the country and those, too, have been under siege. The sense of desperation is growing among the minorities after the latest attack, with some talking of relocating to India.

This attack came after President Ghani announced the end of the government’s unilateral ceasefire and ordered Afghan forces to restart operations across the country. Ghani underlined, somewhat contradictorily, that the ceasefire had been 98% successful and had shown that the majority of the rebels wanted peace, adding that it was now the “Taliban’s turn to give a positive response.” He has indicated that he was ready to extend the ceasefire anytime the Taliban were ready. The Afghan government’s ceasefire lasted 18 days with one extension and was synchronous with the Taliban’s three-day truce for Eid al-Fitr.

While the three days were unprecedented in the nearly 17-year conflict in that they saw no fighting, the Taliban did not hold back for the remaining days. Moreover, the ceasefire did not extend to the Islamic State (IS), which is fast emerging as a potent force in Afghanistan in its own right.

Ghani had offered to recognise the Taliban as a political group, and to discuss amendments to the Afghan constitution to make it happen. But it was rejected by the Taliban as they are not interested in talking to Kabul and want to negotiate with the US. In a statement marking the end of their ceasefire on Sunday, the Taliban called on “the invading American party” to “sit directly for dialogue with the Islamic Emirate to find a solution for the ongoing imbroglio.” The US, for its part, has made it clear that any Afghan peace talks should be Afghan-led and Afghan-owned. The larger reality remains that the Taliban think they are winning on the battlefield and have no interest in engaging the Afghan government.

Meanwhile, the Afghan and US forces are having to fight on two fronts -– the Taliban and the Islamic State. Last year, the US even used the most powerful conventional bomb in its arsenal against the IS in Nangarhar, underscoring its resolve to take the IS head-on. But the challenge from IS in Afghanistan has continued to grow parallel to the Taliban menace.

As Afghanistan has entered the election phase, political jostling has also started, compounding security challenges. The Ghani government remains politically divided, with long-delayed parliamentary elections scheduled for October and presidential elections next year. Ghani, a Pashtun, is often accused of ethnic bias, and regional warlords have started to flex their muscles, as exemplified by the recent revolt by the supporters of Abdul Rashid Dostum, an ethnic Uzbek.

The regional situation remains as complex as ever. Despite Ghani talking of an impending Pakistan-Afghanistan pact against terrorism, the Pakistani military’s assertion in domestic politics makes any possibility of a sustainable outcome unlikely. China, which has real leverage over Pakistan, has so far not shown any willingness to moderate Pakistani policies vis-à-vis Afghanistan. And Iran is now helping the Taliban in ways unimaginable just a few years back.

Belligerent Iran

Shia Iran and Sunni Taliban have been long-time rivals and unlikely bedfellows. But the American presence in Afghanistan is reshaping their calculus. Much like the Taliban, Iran wants to see foreign forces leave; that any government that prevails will at least not threaten its interests; and, at best, it is friendly or aligned with them. Tehran has been providing military support to the Taliban in Afghanistan for some time now, but this engagement has reached new heights recently.

Reports suggest that hundreds of Taliban fighters are being trained by special forces at Iran’s military academies as part of a significant escalation of support for the insurgents, and Iran has also sent Afghans to fight for its ally President Bashar Assad in Syria. US President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal further incentivises Iran to enhance its support to the Taliban. Emboldened by their experience in Syria, Iran and Russia are also working closely in Afghanistan to challenge the US and this primarily means supporting the Taliban with greater vigour.

Recently, the intelligence agencies of Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan came together in Islamabad to discuss measures against the threat of the IS militants in Afghanistan. It is interesting to note that neither Afghanistan nor India were part of this discussion. If the idea was to think of “coordinated steps to prevent the trickling of IS terrorists from Syria and Iraq to Afghanistan from where they would pose risks for neighbouring countries,” as suggested by the Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, then the absence of Afghanistan at the table was indeed curious.

These developments underscore the challenge Afghanistan faces as it moves into an electoral cycle with an unpredictable Trump administration in Washington as its main supporter. There are reports that that the US President has called for a review of his South Asia strategy outlined just a year ago. India needs to be aware of the potentially disastrous consequences for its national security if the negative externalities emanating from Afghanistan are not managed effectively.

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(The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi and Professor of International Relations, King’s College, London)