Why India-Bangla ties will endure

Despite geopolitical shifts, South Asian nations’ fundamental relations with India have remained intact

India and Bangladesh share a resilient relationship, built over decades of cooperation. While geopolitical currents frequently shift in South Asia, with external powers seeking to deepen their influence, the foundation of India-Bangladesh relations remains steadfast. The recent visit of Professor Muhammad Yunus, Chief Advisor of Bangladesh’s interim government, is just the latest episode in a recurring theme of Chinese engagement in India’s neighbourhood. While some have seen this visit as emblematic of Dhaka’s growing alignment with Beijing, it is essential to understand that such moves are neither unprecedented nor necessarily destabilising.

This is not the first time New Delhi has encountered the phenomenon of its neighbours seeking closer economic ties with China. Maldives, for instance, witnessed a significant tilt toward Beijing last year, which triggered a social media drama over perceived Indian interference and led to Indian troops moving out of Maldives. However, despite the turmoil, the fundamental ties between India and the Maldives remained resilient, with both countries recognising the importance of balanced diplomacy. Today, bilateral relations have rebounded, demonstrating momentary shifts do not define long-term strategic partnerships.

Similarly, Sri Lanka’s complex relationship with China – exemplified by the Hambantota Port lease – raised questions about Colombo’s commitment to its relationship with India. Yet, despite China’s deep economic involvement, Sri Lanka continues to value its longstanding ties with New Delhi. When Sri Lanka faced its worst economic crisis in 2022, India responded immediately with $4 billion in financial assistance, showcasing its commitment and role as a dependable partner. These cases exemplify a recurring pattern: South Asian nations may, at times, appear to lean towards China, but this does not necessarily undermine their fundamental ties with India.

India and Bangladesh have weathered greater challenges than the mere optics of Chinese investment. Decades of cooperation in trade, security, and cultural exchange have solidified an understanding that goes beyond the changing winds of foreign policy. Even as Bangladesh engages with China, it is crucial to recognise that this does not equate to a pivot away from India. This was reaffirmed recently when Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Professor Yunus on the sidelines of the sixth BIMSTEC Summit in Thailand. The bilateral meeting reflected the intent on both sides to sustain momentum in the relationship, even during a politically transitional phase.

Bangladesh’s moves to deepen economic and infrastructural ties with Beijing have drawn considerable attention, particularly as the nation has signed onto several Belt and Road Initiative projects. But while critics see this as a potential drift away from India’s sphere of influence, the foundation of India-Bangladesh relations remains resilient.

China’s involvement in South Asia is a reality that India cannot afford to ignore. Still, it is crucial to distinguish between symbolic gestures and substantive shifts. Bangladesh’s pursuit of enhancing its maritime capacities, including through potential Chinese investments, undoubtedly impacts India’s strategic interests. As Dhaka seeks to boost
its maritime influence, India must remain vigilant in maintaining its presence in the region. The Indian Navy’s sustained presence, along with partnerships with Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and other regional stakeholders, forms a multi-layered approach to security that ensures India remains a strong net security provider in the Bay of Bengal as well.

The people connection

What truly distinguishes India’s relationship with Bangladesh from China’s transactional approach is the strength of their foundational ties. From land boundary agreements to comprehensive economic integration frameworks, the two countries have consistently shown the ability to collaborate despite evolving geopolitical challenges. The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), currently under negotiation, is a testament to the desire to deepen bilateral trade and investment ties while minimising vulnerabilities to external influence. India has also extended several lines of credit to Bangladesh, amounting to over $8 billion, the largest assistance India has given to any country. These funds have supported infrastructure development, connectivity, and energy projects, solidifying India’s economic footprint in Bangladesh.

Moreover, the enduring India-Bangladesh people-to-people connections are an invaluable asset. Cultural, linguistic, and familial ties bind communities across the border, fostering an organic integration that no foreign investment can replicate. This human element – underpinned by shared history and aspirations – keeps the bilateral relationship resilient in the face of external pressures.

Rather than responding reactively to every Chinese initiative, New Delhi should focus on reinforcing its unique relationships, grounded in mutual respect and collaboration. South Asia’s complex dynamics will continue to evolve, but India’s ties with Bangladesh have proven time and again that they are not easily shaken. By nurturing economic integration, cultural exchange, and security cooperation, India can ensure that its relationship with Bangladesh remains resilient – regardless of geopolitical moves made by external powers.

(The writer is a research analyst at Chintan Research Foundation)