Elections in Nepal: Gen Z challenges Old Guard

Delhi should start a dialogue process with the new government that would take over in Kathmandu after the elections, irrespective of its political orientation

Since the fury of the Gen Z movement of September 8-9, 2025, which resulted in death and destruction, Nepal has been on a political roller coaster. The unpopular coalition government of the two largest parties, the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) or CPN (UML), headed by K P Sharma Oli as prime minister, was forced to resign. An interim government led by former chief justice Sushila Karki, comprising technocrats as ministers, was sworn in with the express purpose of organising elections within six months, that is, by March 5, 2026. The lower house of Parliament, the Pratinidhi Sabha, was subsequently dissolved.

Even as the new government set about organising the logistics and, more importantly, creating an enabling environment for free and fair elections, the old guard, largely responsible for the cartelization of Nepali politics, namely, Oli and NC leader Sher Bahadur Deuba, who had temporarily stepped away from his responsibilities as party president, began to reassert themselves. Oli, following amendments to the CPN (UML) party constitution on age and term limits, won a resounding victory as chair of the party. With renewed vigour, he continued to disparage the Gen Z movement and belittle the interim government. He was joined by the NC in petitioning the Supreme Court to reinstate Parliament.

Gen Z, meanwhile, remained an amorphous and diffuse group, marked by diverse opinions and lacking clear leadership. The charismatic mayor of Kathmandu, Balendra Shah, who was the preferred nominee of Gen Z for the interim prime minister’s post before Karki’s name was agreed upon and who had been active during the uprising, appeared to retreat into the background. Many speculated that the movement had run its course and that traditional parties would once again assume the reins of power, either through elections or in the event of Parliament being reinstated by the Supreme Court.

RSP as Gen Z torchbearer

The release on bail of the popular leader of the relatively new Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP), Rabi Lamichhane, has injected fresh energy into the younger political forces. He has put together a triumvirate of charismatic leaders and high achievers, including Balendra Shah – credited with the clean-up and beautification of the capital – and Kulman Ghising, widely acknowledged for significantly improving Nepal’s power situation. Shah has been declared the party’s prime ministerial face. Effectively, the RSP has emerged as the torchbearer of the Gen Z movement and its ideals of good governance.

While the old leadership, particularly Oli, has been dismissive – he described the new grouping as an alliance of “chickens, goats, and foxes” that would “achieve nothing” – they are clearly shaken. Reports suggest that the NC and the CPN (UML) might engage in a friendly contest in the next elections or even forge an electoral alliance in order to jointly counter the potential challenge from the newer forces.

The prospect of elections is also spurring consolidation among other political groups. The Maoists have formed a Nepalese Communist Party along with several smaller splinter left groups. Having lost considerable grassroots support, it will be an uphill task for them to contest elections on their own. Prachanda, very much part of the old guard given the numerous coalition governments he has been part of, has nonetheless openly supported Rabi Lamichhane during his imprisonment as well as the Gen Z protestors. Madhesi parties are reorganising; some have merged, while others are attempting to align with the RSP. Pro-monarchy parties, too, are regrouping. New political alignments are clearly taking shape.

Ranjit Rae

While popular sentiment appears to favour the younger trio of Balen–Lamichhane–Kulman, whether this sentiment will translate into votes for the RSP remains an open question. Though founded only in 2022, the RSP performed surprisingly well in that year’s general elections, winning 20 seats with about 10% of the total vote and emerging as the fourth-largest party in Parliament. However, while it has a presence across Nepal, its support base is largely urban and concentrated in major cities and amongst the non-resident Nepali community overseas, which influences the voting behaviour of their families back home. It lacks charismatic leadership from the Terai region and cannot match the resources, cadres, or organisational depth of the traditional parties. Moreover, the election timeline is extremely tight, with polling just two months away. The party has also faced criticism for selecting well-placed individuals, rather than candidates from underprivileged backgrounds, under the proportional representation system for election to the Upper House. Despite these constraints, the RSP is expected to put up a strong challenge to the formidable old guard.

India watching closely

India is watching developments in Nepal closely. An unstable Nepal is not in India’s interest. The sooner elections are held, and an elected government is installed, the better it would be for India–Nepal relations and for ongoing development cooperation initiatives. India has extended support to the interim government and remains committed to providing logistical assistance for the elections. Any weakening of the communist movement in Nepal, which has historically fuelled anti-India sentiment, would be viewed positively from India’s perspective.

Going forward, India needs to make people-to-people engagement, especially with youth, a central theme of its neighbourhood-first policy. India should extend full support to Nepal for the reconstruction of the infrastructure damaged during the Gen Z movement. In any asymmetric relationship, such as that between India and Nepal, irritants will inevitably arise from time to time. These, however, should not be allowed to fester. Efforts should be made to initiate a dialogue process with the new government, irrespective of its political orientation, on issues such as revision of the 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship, the boundary dispute, and the recruitment of Nepalese Gorkhas into the Indian Army—a long-standing tradition that has been disrupted following India’s adoption of the Agniveer scheme for short-term recruitment without post-retirement pensions.

(The writer, a retired diplomat, served as India’s ambassador to Nepal. His latest book, Shared Bond, Strategic Interests: India–Nepal Relations in a Turbulent World, has been published recently.)