Trends from Bihar, other states suggest leg up for BJP

BJP breathes easy as trends emerging from 243 seats in Bihar Assembly polls and 54 Assembly seats in the bypolls in ten other states including Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat are taken into account

As trends suggest, not only is NDA on its way to get a majority in Bihar, the BJP has also emerged as the second largest party in Bihar after the principal Opposition party RJD, while Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's party JD(U) has been relegated to the third position.

BJP's principal opponent at the central level---the Congress despite piggybacking on RJD has not gone beyond a strike rate of 25 percent. BJP has won 38 seats and is leading in 34, RJD has 46 and is leading in 31, JD(U) has won 27 and is leading in 16 while Congress has won 8 and leading in 11 (according to data last updated at 10 pm).

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By the strike rate, RJD is still leading in seats which it contested while Left parties, particularly the CPI-ML, seem poised for a better show having already won six and leading in 12 more of the 19 seats they contested. CPI and CPI-M have won one and two seats, respectively. In total, Congress contested 70 seats and Left, 29.

Clearly the emergency indications show Congress has bitten off more than it can chew and has ended up pulling the Mahagathbandhan down. RJD allowed Upendra Kushwaha-led Rashtriya Lok Samata Party, Jitan Ram Manjhi led Hindustan Awam Morcha and Mukesh Sahani-led Vikassheel Insan Party to part ways from the Grand Alliance. Two of them -- HAM and VIP -- joined the NDA while Kushwaha formed a separate alliance with BSP.

Post results data analysis will show whether it would have been prudent on the part of the Grand Alliance to retain the three caste-based parties and accommodate them by making Congress agree to a relatively lower number of seats. By the afternoon, the RJD-led alliance was close to getting 36 per cent votes while the NDA was close to 38 per cent votes.

Asadddun Owaisi-led AIMIM, with just 5 seats, seems to have damaged the RJD-led alliance in the Muslim-dominated Seemanchal region, much to the NDA's relief.

For the time being, the BJP is all smiles as NDA looks set to form a government in Bihar with Nitish Kumar no longer in the 'big brother' role after Chirag Paswan's LJP having substantially damaged Nitish Kumar's party in a number of seats. Chirag who has never been shy of singing paeans of the BJP even while attacking the JD(U), in all probabilities will be brought on board by the BJP at least. BJP has already made it clear that irrespective of whether the JD(U) gets more or less number of seats than JD(U), Nitish will be the CM if NDA comes to power. But that does not rule out the possibility of change in future.

Whatever be the final outcome, the kind of neck-and-neck race that is to be seen even in the percentage of votes so far got by both the alliances, make it clear while Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity has indeed helped the NDA, Nitish Kumar has also turned as unpopular, as exit polls suggested.

The support of a weak ally Congress acted as impediments in Tejashwi's rise, who otherwise led a very spirited campaign. Despite the anti-Nitish campaign of Chirag Paswan, the dalits seem to have voted in a divided manner particularly after Mahadalit Manjhi having joined the NDA bandwagon. The major chunk of Extremely Backward Classes seem to have stayed back with NDA as both Nitish and Modi seem to have good credentials among them.

Electorates have shown greater faith in Modi's development pitch, backed by a promise of creating 19 lakh jobs to RJD's 10-lakh-jobs offer and Congress' farm loan waiver promise.

For BJP, the result is the first victory of the NDA alliance in a major state after they won Uttar Pradesh with a huge margin in mid-2017 and Gujarat with a wafer thin margin at the end of the same year. Post that BJP has lost a number of bypolls for Lok Sabha and states--in particular its shock 3:0 defeat in the 2018 in MP, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh, then Jharkhand in 2019 and repeat defeat in Delhi in 2020. Repeat of a government in Haryana came with a reduced margin and after roping in a rival party by offering its leader Deputy Chief Ministership.

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In the neighbouring Jharkhand, an alliance of regional party JMM and Congress have only last year wrested the state BJP and such the performance in Bihar, a much bigger state with 40 Lok Sabha seats, comes as a big balm for the NDA. The win will also come as a morale booster ahead of 2021 elections in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, where the BJP is betting big, particularly in the former.

Modi has led a very aggressive campaign in Bihar, though Amit Shah was in the shadows this time. Clearly the electorates have not seen the 'double engine' pitch of NDA as 'double trouble'.